Sunday, 31 May 2020

Reproduction and Reproductive Numbers




Something unusual in the office today. We spent the day walking around a huge pile of cloth masks sitting in the middle of the office. Two thousand and seven of them. I kept peeking down the hall because the sight of them made my heart leap. And then, at around 3:30, I looked again and they were gone. Off to their destination to a First Nation Community.
Just as they had cleared out, 700 more made their way in. Some will be picked up this week and taken to two First Nation communities near Parry Sound. Specifically, 300 masks for Wasauksing, and 100 for Beausoleil. The wonderful woman who is distributing them said, " They are keen to wear them". And we are so keen to provide them. She also said, "Woohoo! 🙏thank you , and all the gracious sewers!"
Amen to that!
I was able to get my gloved hands on a two month old baby today. She is lovely. She is the fifth generation of her family that I have cared for. Her great-great grandmother was one of the first to join my practise. Family Medicine rocks. The day after this babe was born, a pandemic was declared and her parents brought her home to a locked down world. In her short life the world has experienced an unprecedented global crises and, in Ontario, temperatures in May that have not been this low since 1931.
She just cooed and smiled as I talked to her about this. Not a care in the world. Babies are still smiling and parents are still reproducing. Life moves forward in a fascinating and predictable way regardless of our level of stress or anguish which is oddly reassuring.
Premier Ford is about to introduce phase one of a three phase 'back to life with COVID' plan. That life will involve less restrictions but no lessening of the need to be physically distanced in public.
This is what your physical distancing work has done so far:
Doubling time for the COVID virus is now 37 days. It was 20 days last week.
The number of new cases was up to 361 today but the overall trend in new cases is definitely downward. We are climbing down that flattened curve. This is the trend we needed to see before restrictions could be lessened. We have done it!
And here is a new nerdy, epidemiological term I would like to introduce you to: Reproductive Time. It is a mathematical number that is used to indicate how contagious an infectious disease is. If the reproductive time is > 1 the disease is spreading from one person to many and, as with COVID 19, has the potential to become a pandemic. At the beginning of the pandemic here in Canada, the reproductive number was 18. One person was transmitting to 18 others.
When the reproductive number is <1, each existing infection causes less than one new infection which means the disease is in decline and will eventually die out.
In Canada, the reproductive number is now 0.6. It is way less than 1. If we could stay indoors for months and months, COVID 19 would fade away. The economy cannot sustain a prolonged lock down, there will be new infections but they will be manageable. We must not underestimate the magnitude of the work we have done.
Bracelet of Hope had a meeting at noon with our key partners in Lesotho. It was awesome seeing these beloved folks on Zoom. Guess what? They are wearing cloth masks. The country is well known for it's textiles and seamstresses! Nice!
People are really starting to struggle emotionally. We all are but some more than others. Please reach out for help. In Guelph here are the numbers to call or the links to look at to find more information.
CMHA WW Website: www.cmhaww.ca
Here 24/7 at 1-844-HERE-247 or www.here247.ca.
And for post-secondary students, Good2Talk
https://good2talk.ca/
Sleep well tonight fellow COVID warriors.
Anne-Marie
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