How To Save THREE HUNDRED LIVES IN 9 DAYS and get our lives back to a much better place

So, here's how it works. We have so got this!!

Take a look at this link to the Public Health Agency of Canada:

https://bit.ly/3jK41FN

And look at the graphs under these titles:

1/ Daily case counts of COVID-19 continue to increase nationally

2/ Each new case in Canada is spreading infection to more than one person, keeping the epidemic in a growth pattern ( the R value is now > 1 across the country).

3/ Canada continues to test at a high rate but recent spread has increased the percentage of people testing positive ( the percent positivity is now over 3.5% )

4/ Incidence of COVID-19 is increasing across all age groups but remains highest among those under 40 years of age ( look at the red line- the highest increase in cases in the 20 - 39 year olds)

5/ Hospitalizations have increased following the increase in reported cases ( there are now 1100 people in hospital across the country)

6/ Daily number of COVID-19-related deaths, which lag behind infections, is also gradually increasing

7/ Long-range forecast indicates that a stronger response is needed now to slow the spread of COVID-19

This graph is the most important because is shows us where we are, where we might end up and where we could end up.

- the grey line- If we maintain our current rate of contacts – the epidemic is forecast to resurge and there will be 8,000 new cases a day in Canada by the end of December

-the orange line- If we increase our current rate of contacts by 20% – the epidemic is forecast to resurge faster and stronger and there will be 8,000 new cases a day in Canada by the end of November ( 4 weeks from now)

-the blue line- If we decrease our current rate of contacts by 25% – the epidemic is forecast to come under control in most locations with less than 2,000 cases a day and declining by the end of November......AND CHRISTMAS IS OURS!!!

WE ARE GOIN FOR BLUE!!

Which means we must reduce our interactions by 25% in order to bring the pandemic under control again, the way it was in glorious July. Frankly, I am not sure what 25 % looks like in a practical sense but information from epidemiologist is often confusing. The epidemiologist I live with confuses me all the time.

Let's keep it simple. For the next two weeks, don't hold any indoor gatherings. Stick to your work bubble and your household bubble. Two weeks is all it will take. If you must gather, do it safely: stay 6 feet apart, wear masks and have one person be your designated public health lookout. That person does not drink and keeps an eye on the folks in the room making sure they stay safe during the gathering and that they get home safe. We have been designating a driver for years. Why can't we designate a person to be a driver and a public health look out?

Again, it is recommended that you not gather at all just like no sex when you are a teenager but, if it happens, be safe.

No new cases in the Wellington-Dufferin-Public Health Unit in the last two days. Great work. Keep those masks on.

We are seeing a higher and higher occupancy in our ICU's and hospitals especially in the provincial hotspots. In these areas, Public Health cannot keep up with contact tracing. They are only tracing and testing people involved in outbreaks. That's a dangerous trend. That means that the folks that are getting COVID 19 in the community outside of significant outbreaks are on their own and without knowing they need to self-isolate, they will pass the virus on to others. That's community transmission and that is what we want to avoid.

There is evidence that people who test positive are not being truthful with respect to who they have been in contact with.

It is not illegal to become infected with COVID because you attended a gathering. There are no legal repercussions if public health asks for your contacts and you admit you were at a party with 50 people. There will be no legal consequences. The public health guidelines are guidelines, not laws. Public health will not report you to bylaw officers. You will not be fined.

But if you do not let public health know who your contacts were, some of those contacts could die. Early detection and treatment of COVID 19 reduces the chance of dying of COVID 19. Don't leave your friends and family unprotected.

Looks like the rate of spread in this second wave is starting to slow. Good work.

"The projections show the number of COVID-19 cases could rise from the current level — 230,547 as of 11:20 a.m. ET today — to 262,000 by Nov. 8, with up to 326 people expected to die from complications of the disease during that time."

Have you ever saved a life? How about 326 of them?

Let's do this Canada. Two weeks and we save lives and Christmas is ours!

I am socializing tonight. There is only one person in my bubble. We are heading to Dianna's Downtown, my favourite restaurant. The food is awesome and the place is huge with lots of room for social distancing. We were there last week. I so enjoyed eating food that I had not prepared. Loved it. Thank's Dianna's.

There are ways to socialize safely.

Anne-Marie

Please share

PS- The Finding the COVID-19 Balance part 2 webinar has been changed to November 9th at 7 pm. I will share the link well in advance of the event. Watch for fliers across the region. Any donations generated from the event will go to Bracelet of Hope and Hope House. Taking care of one-another.....love that.

For non-Facebook users, you can find this post here:

https://braceletofhope.blogspot.com/

A Case Scenario:

 

So, here we are at a new milestone with 10,001 deaths caused by COVID 19 in Canada.

Number of cases currently hospitalized in Ontario- 312

Six weeks ago there were 39 hospitalized

Number of patients currently in the ICU- 75

Six weeks ago there were 14

Percent positivity is at 3.5%, up from 2.9% late last week.

R value is up from 1- 1.07 in the province.

This means that the second wave is now affecting the elderly and those at risk for serious illness.

Ninety percent of the new cases are in Toronto, Ottawa, Peel and York. This means that if you live outside these areas, your risk of contracting COVID 19 is low and negligible if you wear a mask and practise social distancing. I am confident that we will see the cases in the hotspots decline in the coming week. I am cheering you on Toronto, Ottawa, Peel and York. Here's to lower numbers so that you can move back into stage 3.

I picked my husband up from the Guelph General Hospital last night. He has been waiting for almost a year to have a scope on his knee. We stopped for some take out and we made a trip to the pharmacy on the way home. Every single person I saw was wearing a mask and everyone was distancing. Thanks for that. You are helping to keep our hospitals open. I am grateful to be living in a country where my husband can get his knee repaired by an expert surgeon at no cost to him AND during a pandemic. I know how hard the administrative folks and the health care workers at our hospital have worked to keep the hospital up and running for cases just like this one and many, many others. Having worked in the third world, I know how truly lucky we are. A shout out to the Guelph General for all you do.

I did my usual TIM's run this morning. I am ashamed to say that I behaved like a stiff-necked old person. There were 7 or 8 teenagers standing in a circle together, shoulder to shoulder, no masks. I could not resist. I said, "Hey, I am a doctor ( I rarely ever pull the doctor thing ) and over 360 people in this province have died of COVID 19 in the last 2 weeks because of gatherings like this. Put a mask on".

I was hit with annoyed teenage faces and smirks. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Only one left her mask off and she sneered at me in defiance. I get it. It's rude for a stranger to accost kids in a parking lot. It is not in my nature at all to do that. Each to his own with no judgement is my MO. But, come on, 360 people in 2 weeks. Thirty-six thousand new infections in the country in the same time period.

Here is a possible scenario. One of those teenagers has COVID 19 and passes it on to one of their friends standing in that circle. That friend goes home and passes it on to their mother. She decides that the girls weekend she and her friends had planned after last year's weekend, was too important to miss. So, they gather, fully intending to wear masks and keep a safe distance. But someone pulls out a lovely bottle of Pink Lady and before you know it the laughter cranks up a notch or two and how can you possibly not hug these friends you love so much especially given all the stress everyone has been living under. They all get COVID but one gets sick. She is one of the 75 in the ICU. She is hanging on but it does not look good.

Contacts are traced. The mom and her teenager find out that they transmitted COVID 19 to the woman in the ICU.

I just couldn't live with that. I am sure none of us could live comfortably knowing we were responsible. But there are many people in Ontario who are living with that knowledge right now. They never intended to do harm. They just didn't believe that COVID 19 was about them too.

That is what has been happening across the country. The province continues to ask us to minimize our socializing to just the people we live with. No gathering. But, can I make a recommendation? If you have something planned that you cannot resist, first think twice and cancel it. If you go, be safe. Put a mask on and stay six feet apart. It's like telling your teenage kids not to have sex. The next line should be but if you do, please be safe and use a condom along with effective contraception.......made you blush didn't I.

The ups and downs of COVID - 19. Stick to the plan and the public health guidelines and all will be well.

Anne-Marie

Please share.

PS- The Finding the COVID-19 Balance part 2 webinar has been changed to November 9th. There is growing interest out there. Bracelet of Hope has partnered with our friends at the Canadian Mental Health Association for this event. Watch for fliers across the region. Any donations generated from the event will go to Bracelet of Hope and Hope House. Man, that's a beautiful win-win situation.

For non-Facebook users, you can find this post here:

https://braceletofhope.blogspot.com/

That's the thing with pandemics....

 

Over 1,000 cases in Ontario today. It's hard to watch. This is the 'Thanksgiving' effect. It may be the result of thousands of small gatherings that took place on the thanksgiving weekend.

We are facing the collision of three phenomenon:

1/ Pandemic fatigue- people are tired of the restrictions, tired of living in tight social bubbles and missing out on social gatherings. And, come on, family is family. Isolation feels awful and as more time passes, we are missing out on significant events in our lives.

2/ Pandemic anger- up to a third of people do not believe the exists. If I did not believe the virus existed, I wouldn't be alone. I can find virus deniers and anti-maskers everywhere and there is comfort in numbers. I would carry on with my life without adhering to restrictions if I thought that 66% of the population was being fooled and manipulated

3/ The cooler weather has driven us indoors where the virus transmits with much greater ease.

Regardless of these legitimate phenomenon, the virus continues to spread and it will outsmart us if we are not careful. It does not care about our pandemic fatigue, our pandemic anger or the pandemic deniers. It actually thrives when we are divided and it loves it when we move indoors.

Sit tight and don't fear. The 'Thanksgiving' effect will likely peak and pass in the next week. During that time, there is greater community transmission. Keep that mask handy an be extra-vigilant.

As always, there is a bright side. The R value ( Reproductive value ) is hovering just above 1 on average across the province. In the Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph Health Unit the R value is one. In the provinces hotspots, the R value is as much as 1.6.

Testing and quick contact tracing with quarantines keep the R value down. Provincially, we have a good handle on this system but it can become overwhelmed very quickly.

Remember that for COVID-19, the R value averages around 2.6 to 2.7 in the absence of interventions which means that with no public health measures an infected person can give the virus to between two and three people. If we maintain an R value of less than one, the virus dies out.

What does all this epidemiological nonsense mean? It means that our public health measures work. We have driven the R value to well below the level that occurs with no intervention.

These interventions have prevented thousands of infections and needless deaths. It means that in most of the province, the rate of transmission of this virus is still low. In the next week, as a result of the hotspots being placed under modified stage 2 restrictions, we will see the number of new cases fall, along with the R value in these areas too. That will prove that we can alter the course of this thing with our actions. We can control it.

That's the thing with pandemics in the era of modern medicine and public health. We have the ability to get things back into control and keep them there.

The bulk of the new cases remain concentrated in the long-standing hot spots of Toronto, its neighbouring regions of York and Peel, and Ottawa. People are no different there. Many factors related to population density, close living quarters and mass public transit all lead to a greater spread of the virus in these ares. But, people move about from the hotspots to the quieter areas all the time. If we let our guard down.....All bets on a low R value are off. And when the baseline number of new daily cases are this high, it won't take much for community transmission to take off.

So, six things we need to do in the next week and beyond as cases continue to climb.

Wear a mask

Wear a mask

Wear a mask

Stay six feet apart

Wash your hands whenever possible.

And as for gatherings? It is possible to safely gather in small groups outside your social bubble and we will be able to do that again. Once it is safe to gather inside with non-bubble folks, I will tell you in detail, how to do that. But, over the next couple of weeks, lets let the numbers settle before we risk it.

Stay strong folks. There is nothing to fear as long as we place these tried and true public health measures between us and the virus.

Anne-Marie

Please share.

PS. Yep, that's a carrot. They survived and then some. How can you not find some cheer in that! Thanks to all you carrot helpers and specifically the Guelph Seed Bank. Man, those seeds make huge carrots.

Sleep well tonight good people.

Remember to keep November 2nd at 7 pm clear for our second webinar: Finding the COVID Balance part 2 with special guest Dr Doug Friars, one of the founders and the medical director of Guelph's COVID 19 clinic.

For non-Facebook users, you can find this post here:

https://braceletofhope.blogspot.com/

ZOOM in on the good news!

 

Can we pause and ZOOM in on the good news? Please?

There is lots of it. First of all, we are climbing the curve of the second wave. It might get worse before it gets better. Most of the people infected in wave 2 are young. They have weathered the COVID storm well. Our health cares systems remain intact.

I am worried about the 'Thanksgiving Effect'. Numbers may start climbing next week if social gatherings caused more transmissions of the virus. But from what it looks like now, we are flattening the curve with a steady 7 day rolling average somewhere between 700 and 800. Well done. This is not a safe number as it could turn on a dime, spread dramatically and send us into a second wave surge. But, ultimately, if we tighten up on mask wearing, gathering avoidance and physical distancing, we could be on the other side of this wave and ready to have a reasonable Christmas season.

It is all par for the course: first wave, second wave, risk of a third in the winter months if restrictions are lessened. This is how pandemics work. To the scientific folks that follow these things, none of this comes as a surprise.

Here's the good news. We will likely have 1 or 2 vaccines by January. This statement from Dr. Bonnie Henry, the Chief Medical officer of Health in BC.

"British Columbia's provincial health officer says she expects the "beginnings" of a COVID-19 vaccine may be available for some residents as soon as January.

I am confident we will have a vaccine and it will be effective for at least some people and it will be safe. But it's going to take more time now to find out exactly which one it is," Dr. Bonnie Henry told CBC News on Wednesday.

Currently more than 150 vaccines are in development around the globe and 10 of those vaccines are in the midst of Phase 3 clinical trials — which involve hundreds of volunteers being vaccinated to ensure they are safe.

She added that she expects the vaccine to come in stages and that the B.C. government will likely not have enough for everyone right away.

Health-care workers, seniors, people with underlying illnesses and those who live in close quarters with others are likely candidates to receive the vaccine first, she said. "

JANUARY!!!! I agree with this lovely, brilliant, strong, confident women and exceptional leader. January is just THREE MONTHS AWAY!!! Three months before we switch out of a dark and hopeless phase to an exciting and hopeful stage.

Can we ZOOM in on that good news for a minute? Can we do this for another three months, six months? Sure we can. When the 'at risk' and vulnerable people start to be immunized, our restrictions will lessen, week by week as we move toward providing the vaccine for everyone, we will watch the numbers fall, our spirits elevate and our hope surge.

I think we need to move out of the fearful stage and start thinking about how you would like to feel when COVID 19 is over. Will I be proud of my efforts, of my resilience, of the way I treated my fellow man, the way I followed guidelines to protect others?

You can shift out of the fearful stage and into confident warrior mode. We are winning this battle. Your legacy in that battle is totally in your hands right now.

Heads up. Winter will be tough but it will be short. I am looking forward to educating all of you about the vaccines.....in THREE MONTHS!!

Anne-Marie

Please share

PS. This is my House Call in the fall COVID 19 look. Many Flu shots to be given out there!

For non-Facebook users, you can find this post here:

https://braceletofhope.blogspot.com/

Check out a great place for mental health support here:

https://familyserviceguelph.on.ca/

For local assistance with anxiety and depression:

www.here4help.ca

CMHA WW Website: www.cmhaww.ca

Here 24/7 at 1-844-HERE-247 or www.here247.ca.

And for post-secondary students, Good2Talk

https://good2talk.ca/

Poppycock!

 Our greatest and most ignorant enemy: Misinformation.

In recent posts, people made reference to internment camps being set up by our federal government in order to 'lock people up' and exert control over the population.

UTTER, UNEQUIVOCAL NONSENSE.

Come on folks. If it sounds ridiculous, it probably is. Steer away from mis-information and you steer away from fear and lack of trust. Let fear and lack of trust grow and this virus has the potential to do much more harm than it needs to.

This from the CBC tonight:

"Canadians will not be forced into COVID-19 internment or containment camps, a spokesperson for Health Minister Patty Hajdu said Tuesday — taking aim at a disinformation campaign that has been circulating on social media for weeks.

The claim that the federal government is preparing to forcibly intern Canadians is patently false, the spokesperson said.

The federal government has announced funding for voluntary quarantine sites for some of the country's homeless and has made plans to expand self-isolation capacity for returning international travellers without suitable places to go, but Canadians will not be compelled to leave their homes for so-called COVID "camps.""

Just look at that. The federal government reaches out to the homeless and people with no place to quarantine and that becomes a conspiracy to lock innocent Canadians up.

Poppycock is a better word to use than the one that is in my head. I am putting out this new rule of thumb; if it sounds stupid, ridiculous, implausible, nonsensical, it probably is. Ignore it. Don't let fear settle in. The stupidity is a distraction that prevents us from working together. It plays into the belief that this virus does not exist which puts all of us at needless risk.

If you want proof that the virus is real, come and work with me for a day. It's an insult to everyone working in the medical and mental health fields for anyone, and I mean anyone, to promote the idea that this virus does not exist. And, not following guidelines because you don't believe the virus exists? That just puts you in a comfortable place where you do not have to deal with this harsh reality.

For those of you who are not malicious but just won't believe, be courageous. We will beat this but we need you on the team that is working feverishly to protect the vulnerable and rid the planet of this God-awful thing.

Anne-Marie

Please share and make sure people under 40 see this!!!

For non-Facebook users, you can find this post here:

https://braceletofhope.blogspot.com/

Check out a great place for mental health support here:

https://familyserviceguelph.on.ca/

For local assistance with anxiety and depression:

www.here4help.ca

CMHA WW Website: www.cmhaww.ca

Here 24/7 at 1-844-HERE-247 or www.here247.ca.

And for post-secondary students, Good2Talk

https://good2talk.ca/