That's the thing with pandemics....

 

Over 1,000 cases in Ontario today. It's hard to watch. This is the 'Thanksgiving' effect. It may be the result of thousands of small gatherings that took place on the thanksgiving weekend.

We are facing the collision of three phenomenon:

1/ Pandemic fatigue- people are tired of the restrictions, tired of living in tight social bubbles and missing out on social gatherings. And, come on, family is family. Isolation feels awful and as more time passes, we are missing out on significant events in our lives.

2/ Pandemic anger- up to a third of people do not believe the exists. If I did not believe the virus existed, I wouldn't be alone. I can find virus deniers and anti-maskers everywhere and there is comfort in numbers. I would carry on with my life without adhering to restrictions if I thought that 66% of the population was being fooled and manipulated

3/ The cooler weather has driven us indoors where the virus transmits with much greater ease.

Regardless of these legitimate phenomenon, the virus continues to spread and it will outsmart us if we are not careful. It does not care about our pandemic fatigue, our pandemic anger or the pandemic deniers. It actually thrives when we are divided and it loves it when we move indoors.

Sit tight and don't fear. The 'Thanksgiving' effect will likely peak and pass in the next week. During that time, there is greater community transmission. Keep that mask handy an be extra-vigilant.

As always, there is a bright side. The R value ( Reproductive value ) is hovering just above 1 on average across the province. In the Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph Health Unit the R value is one. In the provinces hotspots, the R value is as much as 1.6.

Testing and quick contact tracing with quarantines keep the R value down. Provincially, we have a good handle on this system but it can become overwhelmed very quickly.

Remember that for COVID-19, the R value averages around 2.6 to 2.7 in the absence of interventions which means that with no public health measures an infected person can give the virus to between two and three people. If we maintain an R value of less than one, the virus dies out.

What does all this epidemiological nonsense mean? It means that our public health measures work. We have driven the R value to well below the level that occurs with no intervention.

These interventions have prevented thousands of infections and needless deaths. It means that in most of the province, the rate of transmission of this virus is still low. In the next week, as a result of the hotspots being placed under modified stage 2 restrictions, we will see the number of new cases fall, along with the R value in these areas too. That will prove that we can alter the course of this thing with our actions. We can control it.

That's the thing with pandemics in the era of modern medicine and public health. We have the ability to get things back into control and keep them there.

The bulk of the new cases remain concentrated in the long-standing hot spots of Toronto, its neighbouring regions of York and Peel, and Ottawa. People are no different there. Many factors related to population density, close living quarters and mass public transit all lead to a greater spread of the virus in these ares. But, people move about from the hotspots to the quieter areas all the time. If we let our guard down.....All bets on a low R value are off. And when the baseline number of new daily cases are this high, it won't take much for community transmission to take off.

So, six things we need to do in the next week and beyond as cases continue to climb.

Wear a mask

Wear a mask

Wear a mask

Stay six feet apart

Wash your hands whenever possible.

And as for gatherings? It is possible to safely gather in small groups outside your social bubble and we will be able to do that again. Once it is safe to gather inside with non-bubble folks, I will tell you in detail, how to do that. But, over the next couple of weeks, lets let the numbers settle before we risk it.

Stay strong folks. There is nothing to fear as long as we place these tried and true public health measures between us and the virus.

Anne-Marie

Please share.

PS. Yep, that's a carrot. They survived and then some. How can you not find some cheer in that! Thanks to all you carrot helpers and specifically the Guelph Seed Bank. Man, those seeds make huge carrots.

Sleep well tonight good people.

Remember to keep November 2nd at 7 pm clear for our second webinar: Finding the COVID Balance part 2 with special guest Dr Doug Friars, one of the founders and the medical director of Guelph's COVID 19 clinic.

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