ISOLATION

Hate that word but isolation has saved millions of lives and will save millions more while we patiently wait in the queue for a vaccine. I was spending time this morning reading more about the COVID-19 virus. I should be listening to Grace Community Church's online church service and I will but as I started reading, the twenty something science geek in me came alive and was fascinated. I cannot overstate how lucky we are that this pandemic arrived at a time when our intelligence and scientific knowledge and technologies were so prepared for it. The Spanish Flu pandemic took two years to fully resolve and it did so because the virus had killed so many human hosts ( 60 million) and made so many others ill ( 500 million people or one third of the global population) that there simply were not enough susceptible human hosts left to allow the virus to replicate and spread. The only option, 100 years ago, was to let it spread, kill and wait until most of the population had developed immunity through surviving the infection ( 70%). The reproductive value of the Spanish flu is estimated to have been 1.8. The R value for COVID 19 is 1.3- 2.2 and the new more infections strain of COVID 19 ( called the B117 variant) has an R value that is as much as 0.7 higher, making it about 50 % to 70% more infectious. This variant does not cause a more severe illness nor does it have a higher death rate but just by the sheer fact that it spreads more rapidly and infects more people in a given time interval, more people will get ill and more people will die. The UK is in a race against time as this new variant becomes the main virus that is being spread ( the dominant strain). The countries only defence until 70 % of the population is vaccinated or immune is to stay in deep isolation. They will win this race against time because of the effectiveness of the vaccines and because a strict lock down is being enforced. We will win that race too. The new variant is gradually making it's way into the Canadian and North American populations. Three weeks behind.......the Atlantic ocean and travel restrictions give us about three weeks before we catch up with our European neighbours. DEEP ISOLATION....is the tool we need to use with extreme vigour and discipline in order to avoid the terrifying spread of this new variant,COVID 19 B117. We still have time. We can succeed. But we cannot waver from the public health lockdown guidelines which many in the medical and scientific communities believe are not strict enough. And so, here we are. Holiday gatherings caused a 150% increase in the number of COVID infections in school aged children, 1 in 5 school age children have COVID 19 and are asymptomatic. Kids cannot return to school until they have been isolated at home for at least 2 weeks or we will have a public health catastrophe. Kids need to be in school but so many people gathered in small groups over Christmas that they cannot return. That is heart-breaking for the kids, for their teachers and for the parents that again, must find a way to balance on line learning with their jobs and all the other responsibilities they have. I can't even imagine. Premier Legault instituted a curfew in the province of Quebec last night. "The main reason for the curfew is to prevent gatherings, even the smallest ones," wrote François Legault. "It's the addition of all the small breaches of the rules that feeds the virus." But, here is the deadly piece that many of us may not understand. Yesterday, 400 people with COVID 19 were occupying ICU beds in Ontario. Four hundred may not sound like much but this means that many hospitals are at or above their ICU's capacity. This week, Ontario launched an unprecedented effort to mitigate the issue by asking Ontario hospitals to reserve a third of their intensive care beds for patients transferred from busier hospitals in other regions. Patients needing ICU beds in hospital whose ICU's are full will now be transferred to hospitals that have capacity, smaller hospitals in smaller towns and cities. When your local hospital's ICU beds are full, the fall out causes more widespread loss of life. Countries with very limited health care systems and few to no ICU facilities have life expectancies that are less than 50 years of age. That's because there is no system to treat the 49 year old's heart attack. There is no unit to treat the 30 year old accident victim. There is no operating room that can remove cancers, treat gastrointestinal bleeds from bleeding gastric ulcers or ruptured aneurysms. There is no public health system that works to prevent the spread of deadly diseases like HIV, malaria, tuberculosis and COVID -19. It is projected that we will fill 600 ICU beds in Ontario next week. The system is preparing for the huge strategic shifts that have to take place, working together as a massive provincial system to manage this. I fear for people with COVID 19 who will need these beds but may need a risky transfer in an air ambulance to Sudbury to get one. I fear for folks that are about to suffer a serious and unexpected illness or accident in a system that may not be able to offer them acute care and I fear for all the folks whose cancer surgeries and orthopedic surgeries will be canceled again. People die on those surgery wait lists. No judgement here. We all have a choice. We can follow the guidelines or not. Small gatherings over Christmas will prove to have caused a huge loss of life at great risk to our health care system leaving that system less intact to serve you over the next month. My question is, was it worth it? So here is the deal: follow the guidelines now. DO NOT GATHER. I think we should wear a mask everywhere, even outside if other people are around you. Adhere to guidelines at work. Keep the masks on and do your best to stay six feet a apart. Don't take the mask off. Stay in your homes and in your bubbles....only. No one else in your house. Ten can gather outside but must stay six feet apart and I think you should wear a mask even when physical distancing is in place. We will win this race. Vaccines are here. The province will receive enough vaccine to start immunizing the masses in April. Until then, I pray that you will not be exposed, that you will not develop a serious infection that requires hospitalization if you get COVID 19 and I pray that you will not become seriously ill or injured in this time when our health care system has been dangerously overstretched by seemingly innocent small gatherings. And, I pray for the exhausted front-line health care workers that we seem to have forgotten about. Win this race with the fewest casualties possible. Stay home, be grateful, lower your expectations. Find other ways to occupy your time, just for a short time. Reach out if you need help and roll up that sleeve. More posts coming about the adverse reactions of the COVID vaccines. They are rare and not deadly. Join us at tomorrow nights Finding the balance during COVID 19. Here is how to view. This Facebook page or via Zoom/.you can watch it on theCMHA Waterloo Wellington https://us02web.zoom.us/.../reg.../WN_9CPywwkDQvy0KCmQHXug6g. Anne-Marie Please share widely. We need everyone on side. For non-Facebook users, you can find this post here: https://braceletofhope.blogspot.com/ We are gearing up to help the people of Lesotho have access to these vaccines. If you would like to help Bracelet of Hope in this vital task, donate here: https://www.braceletofhope.ca/ways-to-