Third State of Emergency

 

THIRD STATE OF EMERGENCY

I was cleaning an upstairs room this morning. Hanging on the back of the door was a jacket and a travel bag that I lasts used in Jan of 2020. I have seen these items many times but today my eyes lingered over that beautifully coloured quilted bag, the one that I was supposed to use again for a trip to Lesotho in the fall of 2020. Something shifted in me as I stared. It was like a window had opened or maybe it had closed. I realized that I will no longer be the same, carefree person that travelled last year, ever again. Carefree I hope, the same, no. We have lived with the consequences of COVID 19 for too long now. We have all suffered, lost, learned to cope, learned to be alone, learned to live with scarcity and uncertainty. A global catastrophe like this will change who we are as a society. But, many, many generations before us have lived with similar or worse catastrophic events and as a race, we have survived. I believe that the capacity to survive is embedded in our genes. We have the strength, wisdom and intelligence to overcome and it is hard-wired in our DNA. A little science and philosophy thrown at you on this fine Sunday afternoon at the start of our third stay at home order. 4456 new cases in Ontario today. The highest number of new cases ever in this pandemic. I am going to take you to some links that we have all seen before. Click on this link: https://www.covid-19canada.com/graphs Scroll down to Ontario (ON). Find the graph titled, "New cases Analysis by Date" and click on the 7 day rolling average. You will see the first, second and third waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in Ontario. The peak of the first wave looks like a minor blip. It took us five months to reach the peak of the second wave at the end of January and only a month to reach the same level in the third wave, a rapid increase in the number of new daily cases caused by the variants of concern. WE NEED THIS THIRD EMERGENCY ORDER. Now look to this link: https://globalnews.ca/news/7751278/covid-19-ontario-cases-april-11/ Scroll down to find these three graphs: New confirmed cases Current hospitalizations New deaths. This may not last but the number of new deaths is climbing at far less a rate in the third wave than the rate of deaths in the second wave. This may be due to the fact that we have vaccinated the vast majority of our vulnerable population, the folks over 70. Younger people are becoming infected and more and more are hospitalized and on ventilators. This group may be more resilient and more able to overcome the consequences of serious illness from COVID-19 requiring ventilation. Vaccinations work. We have protected our most vulnerable. In Ontario, we have vaccinated 3,139,743 of our vaccine eligible population. That's almost 25 % of the adult population. In the last 4 days, we have vaccinated more than 100,000 /day, that's 1 % of the population/ day. As more vaccines arrive, we will have the capacity to vaccinate more that 200,000/day and that's a conservative number but let's say we stay at 100,000/day. That means that during this 28 day lock down, we will vaccinate 28 % of the population, added to the 24 % that are already vaccinated and we will have vaccinated more than 50 % of the adult population by the first week of May. What happens when 50 % of the eligible population is vaccinated? Let me take you back to this tried and true link: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html On the left hand side, scroll down to the United Kingdom. Look to the bar graph in the lower right corner. The United Kingdom has vaccinated 60 % of it's population as of today and the result? The number of new daily cases of COVID 19 has dropped. They have smashed their third wave and they did it with a combination of a heavy lock down combined with mass vaccinations using the AstraZeneca Vaccine. There is a quote at the end of my husband's emails: "'Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored - Aldous Huxley'" The numbers do not lie. Science is based on data and facts. These vaccines work. Countries that have combined a stay at home order with mass vaccinations have wiped out their third wave. Twenty eight days. That's all it will take. Don't despair and keep your eye on the goal. Twenty-eight days. Stay at home, do not gather and get vaccinated. We may be tired and angry and frustrated but that does not change the hope that sits right in front of us. It is a hope based in fact, and science and amazing vaccines. Trust public health. Support your front line workers. Think twice before adding to their burn out with our doubts and frustrations. This lockdown will not be easy but it will be over....soon And, one more commentary. Postponing the interval between vaccine dosages to 16 weeks was a brilliant decision. The mRNA vaccines are effective up to 6 months. As a result of the delay, we will get to 50 or 60 % of eligible adults receiving their first dose in short order and likely before this emergency order is lifted. The decision was a wise one to make in this era of COVID-19 vaccine scarcity. The more people with that first dose, the more are protected and the quicker we end this third wave because there is now ample evidence that these vaccines not only dramatically reduce the risk of a person from getting infected but they also prevent a person from transmitting COVID-19 to others. Many of you have not received the date of your second vaccine appointment. I believe that is because that once vaccines are no longer scarce which in Ontario will likely be the end of April, you will be called for a second shot in 2 to three months. No word on the safety of delaying the second dose of the AZ vaccine. Keep moving in this direction and it will not be delayed beyond it's effectiveness. This should be our focus. Hope based on facts and numbers and science. Real hope. Anne-Marie Please share For non-Facebook users, you can find this post here: https://braceletofhope.blogspot.com/ And if you'd like to help Bracelet of Hope work towards making sure that Lesotho has access to these vaccines, donate here: https://www.braceletofhope.ca/ways-to-