No Doom and Gloom, just hope!

 Despite all the doom and gloom predicted for this fall with spikes after Thanksgiving and the Christmas season, I see things a little differently. I think there is hope by the bucketload on the horizon. Grab onto it as our energy wane and our mood heads for a dip with the shortening of daylight. Look to the hope.

Hope is arriving in three packages: 1/ The peak worse case scenario modelling for the province of Ontario predicted by our brilliant scientist and epidemiologists did not materialize. We did not reach 4,000 cases a day once schools were in session. We have consistently stayed below 1,000 cases/day and for the last 7 days, we have been below 800 cases per day. Take a look at my favourite graph: https://covid-19canada.com/graphs#ON Scroll down to 'New cases analysis by date'. Wave one peak, 560 cases/day. Wave 2 peak, 3700 cases/day. Wave 3 peak, 4300 cases/day and look at wave four: looks like a levelling off at under 800 cases/day and while there may be an increase in cases as we move indoors, this declining 7 day average is WHAT WE ARE CAPABLE OF through vaccinations, distancing and mask wearing. Wave 1- COVID in the dark spring of 2020 with widespread lockdowns, nothing but grocery stores, pharmacy, hospitals and doctors offices open. Remember how bleak it was? Wave 2- the dark winter of 2021 driven by indoor gatherings as we struggled to have some sort of Christmas and New Year's celebrations many of us locked in and reaching out to loved ones on Christmas morning via phone and zoom and text. Wave 3- the monstrous wave caused by the Beta variant; More transmissible, more infections, more virulent. It pummelled the UK. That was April of 2021. Our daily case rate soared to over 4,000 with our hospitals and ICU's reaching maximum capacity. Wave 4- driven by the exceptionally infections Delta variant that raced through India and the US in the spring and summer of 2021. In Ontario, cases have stayed below 800. Today's 7 day rolling average was coming in at under 600. In the spring of 2021, vaccines became widely available in Canada. Ontario stepped up and is now 80 % fully vaccinated and as a result, the virus is running out of it's source of fuel; that's us, it's human host. 2/ Vaccine effectiveness is exceeding our expectations with a very low risk of serious side effects and no deaths when given following the appropriate medical procedures. In Guelph, for example, 92.4% have received one dose and 88.4 % are full vaccinated. Over a two day span last weekend, there were only 6 new cases. 3/ Hospitalizations, ICU admissions and deaths have remained incredibly low, day after day with virtually no significant increase in weeks. I will say that again; hospitalizations, ICU admissions and deaths have remained incredibly low, day after day with virtually no significant increase in weeks. This is what counts. This is where the vaccines are most effective and this is why it is very, very unlikely that we will face lockdowns this winter. The capacity of our healthcare system will not be overwhelmed as the number of vaccinated increase. https://covid-19.ontario.ca/data/hospitalizations COVID-19 will become endemic. Endemic is when a disease becomes manageable. An endemic disease does not cause and undue burden on hospitals or other healthcare resources. An endemic disease causes serious illness in very very few and at the present time, the vast majority who are becoming seriously ill and hospitalized are unvaccinated. Very few infectious diseases that have caused pandemics become fully eradicated. The properties of the virus that causes COVID-19 ( SARS-coV-2) make it unlikely to be completely eradicated but vaccines, and drugs not yet approved for use, will prevent it from remaining the serious, deadly, widespread infection it presently is. We are closer to this new state of reality than you think; months not years. Vaccine will serve as the conduit to for controlling COVID-19. We will continue experience mild cases of COVID-19 with minor, manageable symptoms but the days of this pandemic in this country, are numbered. And what a magnificent feat we have accomplished so far. It is not time to rest. We are not safe yet. Please get vaccinated and get our provincial vaccination rate above 90% or, even better, 95%. Do not gather with groups of people who are not vaccinated this weekend. Keep the number of people in your indoor gatherings as low as possible and definitely under 25. Keep the windows open if you can. Remain outside as much as possible and put masks on when you are not eating. I know, we don't have to wear masks inside if we are in a setting where everyone is vaccinated but the children are not yet vaccinated. COVID-19 can spread at your Thanksgiving event and the folks at your event will get sick if they are exposed. Most will not become seriously ill or require hospitalization but there is no absolute guarantee of this. Play it safe but enjoy.....because, this year, you can. Some added information: Booster shots are only available to a select few. You can find that list on your public health website. https://wdgpublichealth.ca/your-health/covid-19-information-public/covid-19-vaccine-information/third-dose-eligibility-and-how People with who had mixed vaccines are not yet on the list for a third dose but I would like to activate for that and I will in an upcoming post that may contain a petition. Don't you just love petitions? Let's not forget resource poor countries. COVID-19 will not become endemic in all countries until resource poor countries have the same access to these vaccines. Anne-Marie We are assisting in the roll out of the J and J vaccine in Lesotho. If you would like to be apart of this vitally important work towards making sure that vaccines are distributed in resource poor countries like Lesotho, you can donate here: https://www.braceletofhope.ca/ways-to-give/ For non-Facebook users, you can find this post here: https://braceletofhope.blogspot.com/