Projections:

This is an interesting graph. It looks at where hospitalizations may go in the next 6 weeks . The grey line shows us where we have been with respect to COVID- 19 hospitalizations with a peak in mid-January and a decline until mid-March. March 10th is when the Omicron BA.2 variant started it's rise. Mask mandates were lifted on March 21st in the province of Ontario and the graph shows the increase in hospitalizations, as predicted, two weeks later.

New modelling, as set out by Ontario's Science Advisory Table, paints a more alarming picture than the numbers released by the table last month. They estimated that there would be 800 COVID patients in hospital by May and 300 in the ICU. But then the BA.2 Omicron sub-variant became the dominant strain in the province and mask mandates were lifted.

Today, there are 1392 people in hospital with COVID-19 up 23 % week over week and the highest it's been since mid-February. Most likely case scenario is that we surpass 3,000 hospitalizations in May with 500 in the ICU. The worse case-scenario shows us reaching more than 4,000 hospitalizations with 600 in the ICU.

There is good news. Waste-water signals indicate that the sixth wave has peaked. This weekend may change that if folks gather without taking great care.

While presenting these numbers, the science table made it clear that masking in indoor areas “will substantially reduce the risk of getting and spreading COVID-19” and noted that the “community benefits from masking are most pronounced when adopted widely in public spaces, schools and workplaces.”

Hmmmmm. Looks like masks might be a good idea. They may just keep us moving past the peak of the sixth wave without becoming ill.

More good news and this is what we need to focus on for the future of this pandemic. This is why we should be cautiously optimistic about seeing the backside of this pandemic:

1/ It is likely that between 4.5 and six million Ontarians have contracted COVID-19 since Dec. 1, accounting for at least one-third of the province’s population.

2/ More than 7 million have received three doses and many of them will not contract COVID-19 even if exposed, most will avoid serious illness and hospitalization if they do contract COVID-19.

Epidemiologist can only take a stab at figuring out how many of us now have immunity but it could well be over 75% of the population. Are we building a strong wall of immunity against COVID-19 in the province? I hope so. Will this protect us from future waves? Possibly. Will this bring about herd immunity? Wouldn't that be grand but it is more likely that we will be able to push COVID-19 from a pandemic state to an endemic state which would allow us to move on with our lives with no restrictions; government or self-imposed.

Self-imposed mask mandates, crowd size limitations and social distancing is all we are left with right now but I think we should be continuing with restrictions, especially masking, so that we can minimize the number of hospitalizations and ICU admissions that will happen in the coming weeks, reduce serious illness and death and take the strain off an overburdened healthcare system.

It is up to us this weekend.

And another gentle reminder; get vaccinated with three doses. Up to 10 % of unvaccinated people who contract the virus end up with long haul COVID the most common symptom of which is extreme fatigue.

Anne-Marie

Please share and have a Blessed and safe Easter, Passover celebration or Ramadan.

For non-Facebook users, you can find this post here:

https://braceletofhope.blogspot.com/

For mental health support here:

https://familyserviceguelph.on.ca/

For local assistance with anxiety and depression:

www.here4help.ca

CMHA WW Website: www.cmhaww.ca

Here 24/7 at 1-844-HERE-247 or www.here247.ca.

And for post-secondary students, Good2Talk

https://good2talk.ca/