There were over 2,000 cases per day in Ontario on December 27th and December 28th. Fifteen thousand Canadians have died of COVID 19.
In the United Kingdom the virus is spreading more rapidly than previously seen in some areas. This country and now 13 others including Canada, have discovered a more infectious strain of COVID-19.
The new variant was first reported in the United Kingdom on December 14. Named VUI-202012/01 (the first Variant Under Investigation in December 2020), has rapidly become the dominant strain in cases of COVID-19 in many parts of the UK. It may be 70% more transmissible but does not seem to be causing a more severe illness or changing enough to outsmart the new COVID-19 vaccines.
Here's the thing about viruses like COVID-19. Changes in the virus, or mutations, arise naturally as the virus replicates. Scientists have already discovered many thousands of COVID-19 mutations. As with other viruses, most of these mutated viruses do not change the virus in any appreciable way.
Remember that spike protein on the surface of the virus, the protein that allows the entry of COVID-19 into your cells where it then causes so much damage? There are currently 4,000 mutations of this spike protein meaning 4,000 types of virus whose spike protein has changed, just a bit but not enough to cause a more serious illnesses or more rapid rate of transmission of COVID-19.
“Mutations are expected and are a natural part of evolution. Many thousands of mutations have already arisen, and the vast majority have no effect on the virus but can be useful as a barcode to monitor outbreaks.” (Sharon Peacock, director of COG-UK)
This new variant of concern has 17 mutations to the spike protein making it easier for the virus to enter your cells. It's spike protein has changed enough to make it more transmissible. But it has not changed enough to make our vaccines less effective.
So, here's a case scenario:
You are a successful business man. You decide that you have been following the public health guidelines very well. You are invited to an office Christmas party. You decide that going won't do any harm. After all, you've been so good, it's Christmas and no one should have to sacrifice all the special gatherings.
So, you go. A few hours into the party and the party goers are really enjoying themselves. Lot's of good food and alcohol. Masks come off. We think less about the rules and follow them less precisely when we drink.
Three days later, this businessman develops symptoms. He is positive for COVID-19. He has been to work since the party and he has a pregnant wife.
IF he picked up this new COVID-19 variant, the virus was much more adept at entering the cells in the back of his throat using this new spike protein to enter cells. His immune system had no chance. Trouble is, the new virus made it much easier to spread the virus to his co-worker and pregnant wife. His co-worker continues on with his life, potentially carrying a virus that easily spreads to his family and friends. All of a sudden, a virus that was less easy to spread is now spreading like a wild fire, filling up our ER's and ICU's. People are not getting sicker but the more people who can easily spread the virus, the greater the number of people they can spread it to.
Remember the R value, the number of people a person with COVID can spread the virus to? The old COVID virus- R value is 1.1 to 1.2. This new variant, the R value may be as high as 1.6.
Two forces working against us:
The old COVID and the new COVID.
COVID-19 that was allowed to replicate and spread to millions of people. And now, as a result of thousands upon millions and billions of replications new mutations have evolved and at least one of these is this new COVID variant which is 70 % more transmissible.
Two forces working for us:
The public health guidelines still work. Regardless of the ability of this new variant to transmit, exposure is exposure. Keep a mask on, DO NOT GATHER, keep your distance and wash your hands.
And, the new vaccines are 95 % effective and all indications are that it will work against this variant.
Yeah, you deserve to have a big party on New Years Eve. We have earned it, right? If that new variant is at the party and you are not able to keep your mask on or keep your distance, You will get COVID-19 and you will spread it with great ease to anyone else you come in contact with.
Here's what makes not following the public health guidelines so dangerous right now.
The more people become infected, the more opportunity this virus has to replicate. The more opportunity it has to replicate, the more mutations will occur. If one mutant evolves enough to change it's spike protein to the degree that the vaccine no longer work, man we are in for a very long haul. As more mutations occur, the present vaccines may need to be altered. That is amazing but that would mean repeating the herculean efforts we have already made and we will be living with this virus for much longer than we need to.
Stay home on December 31st. Stay home on December 31st and don't have people in. Please stay home.
Please note, that business guy? True story. My husband was in the line of fire. He stayed six feet away from a dear friend who is was passing by. The co-worker was yet to find out that he was exposed at work. When my husband got home he was dismayed. He so wished to invite the friend in. He did not!!!
We are now mere months away from everyone in this country having access to an effective vaccine. Please, don't mess with that.
Stay safe.
Anne-Marie
Please share.
The holiday are very tough for many.
For mental health support here:
https://familyserviceguelph.on.ca/
For local assistance with anxiety and depression:
www.here4help.ca
CMHA WW Website: www.cmhaww.ca
Here 24/7 at 1-844-HERE-247 or www.here247.ca.
And for post-secondary students, Good2Talk
https://good2talk.ca/
For non-Facebook users, you can find this post here:
https://braceletofhope.blogspot.com/
And if you'd like to help Bracelet of Hope work towards making sure that Lesotho has access to these vaccines, donate here:
https://www.braceletofhope.ca/ways-to-
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