MODERNA

 

Well, would you look at that.

The first vial of the Moderna vaccine arrived in my office today. Major photo op before I safely tucked it away. Liquid gold. It was the highlight of an incredibly busy week.

I cannot stress enough how important and scientifically incredible these vaccines are. The technology behind these vaccines has allowed for the production of a very robust and durable immune response even after the first does. So powerful that they work against variants. The World Health Organization announced today that the current COVID vaccines appear to be protective against all of the variants of concern circulating globally.

That is great news.

Our immune response to these vaccines is so significant that the COVID virus is not able to get a foot hold in a person who has been exposed. They are pushing us over the peak of the third wave.

In Ontario, the seven day rolling average has declined to 2182. . Yes, the number of new daily cases is up today but the 7 day rolling average takes into consideration the ups and downs of the daily case counts.

Even more importantly, hospitalizations are down to 1320 , ICU admissions are down to 721 and the number of people with COVID-19 infection on a ventilator is down to 493. Four weeks ago, it was projected that with no new restrictions, the number of people in hospital in Ontario would exceed 1500 which would have overwhelmed our health care system. Our present lockdown slid into a period of unprecedented mass vaccinations which allowed us to avoid that catastrophe. We need the number of people in hospital with COVID -19 to be under 500 before restrictions can be loosened significantly. Our present trajectory will see us there by mid-June.

Here’s the ticket. Restrictions and vaccinations were necessary to slow the transmission of the virus and get us to this point. Combined, they dropped the Reproductive value to below one (0.86 today). But once 75 % of the population is vaccinated, the vaccines alone will keep the R value down. They will reduce community transmission to low levels. They will become the main barrier to the reproduction of COVID-19 allowing us to move out of our present public health restrictions. Not right away, but slowly over the course of the summer.

What we have done has worked. But all of that could be wiped out with one long weekend. Just over 50 % of us have received one dose of vaccine. The vaccine barrier is not strong enough to stop transmission without continued public health restrictions. That one beer in your neighbours back yard, that gathering around the bonfire at your cottage, that get together of family and friends around your BBQ, just isn’t worth it. Let’s celebrate on Canada Day or the August long weekend, labour day or oh, wait; thanksgiving. Many small sparks of transmission from thousands of ‘ innocent’ gatherings this weekend will cause an alarming uptick in hospitalizations which will required a prolonged lockdown.

Please don’t wipe out four long weekends for the sake of this one. It’s just not worth it.

Get vaccinated. Stay home.

We are almost there.

Anne-Marie

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