Sneaking one in under the wire

Hoping it does not draw as much attention as my last post. Seven thousand shares and one thousand comments is over the top for me. Makes me feel uneasy. The world is not the brightest place at the moment. I have lived through some nasty consequences in the past as a result of this kind of exposure. There are folks out there who would do pretty much anything to harm someone they perceive as getting too much attention.

Not sure why I am telling to you this. Maybe if I name my fear and share it, I will rise above it. Consider it named.

I think we need to review bubbles. When we moved into phase three, new guidelines may have caused some confusion. I would like to clarify the guidelines as we head into another July weekend. We are doing pretty well nationally today. There were 359 new cases in Canada and 195 new cases in Ontario. We are no longer seeing that nice steady decline in cases but we are not seeing a surge yet either. There is much to be hopeful for. If we dig deep and stay the course we will continue to keep COVID 19 under control.

A lot of folks who follow this page are asking me to comment on a return to school in the fall. I have hesitated to answer and I think it is because whether or not returning to school will be safe really depends on what the rate of infection is in September and the percent positive cases. Yesterday there were 432 positive cases in Canada which works out to 2.9 % of the total that were tested ( percent positivity).

I follow the tables that quote these numbers. I am not well versed in the epidemiology behind these numbers. But the epidemiology experts would like to see a couple numbers stay under good control before we can even consider how and when kids will go back to school: The percent positivity needs to stay under 3 %, the R value under 1.0.

Here is the link to the national data that I follow:

https://health-infobase.canada.ca/covid-19/epidemiological-summary-covid-19-cases.html#a4

I have not been able to find a provincial site that quotes Ontario's percent positivity or R value on a daily basis. If any of you Statistician types have a link, please share. I would really like to keep track of these numbers.

If we do not stick to public health guidelines over the summer, we will not keep these numbers under control and my guess is, returning to school will be questioned. I am not an expert here but a return to school will be safe if the rate of infection in the province remains low. That's not really an answer for parents and teachers who rightfully need answers now. The awful thing about COVID 19 at the moment is that it is ruling our lives and our decision making, not the other way around.

Here is how we keep the numbers low:

Wear a mask in all public spaces.

Maintain a physical distance of six feet from anyone who is not in your social bubble.

Social bubbles can only contain 10 people. These ten can only be in your bubble and no other bubbles until and if the recommendations change. That does not mean that each person in your bubble can belong to another group of ten and move freely between the two. That also does not mean that the 10 person bubble you are in during the week can change on the weekend or expand to 30 or fifty on the weekend.

Ten people, one bubble, no movement in or out.

One hundred can gather outside but they must be physically distanced from one another or the social bubbles within that 100 must be six feet away from other bubbles. The one hundred rule is meant for things like weddings and funerals, not an outdoor party in your back yard where, I would imagine, there is not room for 100 people to stay physically distanced from one another.

Fifty can gather inside but the same thing, they must be physically distanced. This rule is also meant for formal events as I would imagine that most of us do not have space in our homes to host 50 people who can remain physically distanced. The 50 rule does not mean you can throw a party or gather your extended family and have a reunion inside your home.

The virus is dictating these rules, not some draconian government. It is most easily transmitted when people are in close proximity inside and when too many people are in close proximity outside. These are not difficult rules to follow but they do introduce a level of hardship we have not suffered as a community before. Suffer the hardship with strength and selflessness. Fewer people will die. We will avoid the risk of another lock down and our kids might just be able to safely return to school in the fall.

If nothing else, do it for the kids

Anne-Marie

Please share

In my family practise, the number of people suffering from serious mental health issues is up by at least 30 %. Please reach out.

Check out a great place for mental health support here:

https://familyserviceguelph.on.ca/

For local assistance with anxiety and depression:

www.here4help.ca

CMHA WW Website: www.cmhaww.ca

Here 24/7 at 1-844-HERE-247 or www.here247.ca.

And for post-secondary students, Good2Talk

https://good2talk.ca/

For equal access to treatment in Lesotho!

https://www.braceletofhope.ca/ways-to-give/

Lets keep our local charities strong by donating here:

https://www.canadahelps.org/en/dn/47254

For non-Facebook users, you can find this post here:

https://braceletofhope.blogspot.com/