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Our new COVID life must, at all times, include strict adherence to public health guidelines all the time, for all of us, everywhere.
I have never worn a mask while harvesting the garden before. It was interesting. We had an elderly, beloved Aunt home from her longterm care facility for a few hours yesterday. She lives at Eden House which has never had a case of COVID 19. Thank you Eden House. She could come home to spend a few hours with us but we all wore masks and we could not eat or drink.
She has not been home since February and we loved it, masks and all.
What you do on this beautiful last weekend of the summer of 2020 could make the difference between life and death for thousands of people including my beloved Aunt Marylou.
This is the second day that cases in Ontario surpassed 400.
Is this a second surge? Too soon to say. But who cares?
We should care but we should not panic.
What is concerning is the rate at which the increase in COVID 19 cases in climbing. The ability of this virus to spread is what makes it so dangerous. As soon as the rate of new cases hits a certain point, public health can no longer keep up with testing and contact tracing and that is when this thing becomes a run away train. If it gets to that point, governments have no choice but to lock us down again.
The rate of new cases is now 0.3 %. Remember that in March, when this virus was a run away train, the rate of increase in new cases was over 40 %.
The percent of positive cases of all the cases done in a day is now 2.1%. On September 12th, 1 % were positive. That is a significant increase. The death rate has not changed significantly in weeks. That curve has flattened as has the curve that represents new hospitalizations and admissions to ICU.
So. What does this mean? The number of new cases/day has definitely climbed and mainly in the under 40 age group. This group is less likely to get sick and die. They are less likely to require a hospital or ICU admission. That's why the death rate and the hospitalization rate has not yet changed.
It takes about two weeks from the time of transmission of the virus to you for you to get sick. This week, we will start to see more folks getting sick and a slight increase in hospitalizations. But, it is what we do today that can change what will happen three weeks from now.
By that time, we will see how many of these younger people spread the disease to at risk and older people. If we do not pull this thing back now, hospitals will become overwhelmed as the newly infected and at risk people become very sick.
THIS IS VERY IMPORTANT. We are in a very different position now than we were in March which, if you remember was terrifying. Now we have the ability to test over 30,000 people a day. Now we can test, contact and quarantine people who are positive preventing them from passing the virus on to other people. Now we understand how to treat those that are very sick in the ICU with interventions that keep them alive until they can be weaned off a ventilator.
NOW THERE IS A BROAD COVID 19 SAFETY NET.
AND
NOW WE KNOW HOW TO KEEP THE SPREAD OF THE VIRUS UNDER CONTROL.
SO
NOW IS THE TIME TO HUNKER DOWN AND GET BACK TO IT.
If we wear masks, practise physical distancing, avoid social gatherings and strictly stick to our bubbles, really, really get back on track, we will not see a significant surge that overwhelms the health care system, increases the death rate and forces us back into lock down.
None of his is easy. Fall and winter will make life even more difficult but we can do this. We have already proven that we can do this.
I believe that a social bubble of ten is too large. There are too many of us that are back to work and back to school at a stage where community transmissions are increasing.
I think we need to behave like we did in March when we took this thing Oh so seriously only now, we can do that without the panic and fear and with the confidence that what we do will work and with the understanding that a vaccine will come.
" Now is the time for Canadians to redouble their efforts." Dr. Theresa Tam.
Last week I reviewed my office safety protocols and reset some rules we had loosened up on. Specifically, we made our lunch and common areas safe again. We spread the chairs apart and we re-committed to wearing a mask at all times. The numbers show that new transmission are up at the work place from contact in lunch rooms and common areas.
Consider downloading the government COVID tracing app. Now is the perfect time as community transmission are on the rise. Doing so contributes tremendously to the control of spread. It was easy to download. I just looked in my app store and the options to download the app was right there.
COVID Alert is Canada's free exposure notification app.
New marching orders team. Let's do this!
Anne-Marie
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