Not gonna lie. This is upsetting but still manageable:
1766 cases in Canada today.
425 in Ontario.
BC 366 new cases and Quebec 586 new cases.
Here's the bad news. The R value, that number we talked about 2 months ago, is now 1.31.
What does that mean?
The R value is the reproductive value which is a mathematical term that indicates how contagious an infectious disease is. It’s also referred to as the reproduction number. As an infection is transmitted to new people, it reproduces itself and the reproductive number tells you the average number of people who will contract a contagious disease from one person with that disease.
For example, if a disease has an R value of 18, a person who has the disease will transmit it to an average of 18 other people. That replication will continue if no one has been vaccinated against the disease or is already immune to it in their community or if we do not put into place any other barriers to infection.....like masks, physical distancing and limiting the number of people who gather inside and outside.
Here's how to read the R value:
If the R value is less than 1, each existing infection causes less than one new infection. In this case, the disease will decline and eventually die out.
If the R value equals 1, each existing infection causes one new infection. The disease will stay alive and stable, but there won’t be an outbreak or pandemic.
If the R value is more than 1, each existing infection causes more than one new infection. The disease will be transmitted between people, and there may be an outbreak or a pandemic.
Take the 1918 flu pandemic as an example. It killed 50 million people. The R value of that flu virus was between 1.4 and 2.8.
The R value of the swine flu of 2009 was between 1.4 and 1.6.
According to a study published in the Journal of Emerging Infectious Diseases, we initially underestimated the R value of COVID 19. Originally it was thought that without any public health measures or barriers and without a vaccine, COVID 19 could spread from one infected person to 2.2 to 2.7 other people. That's more infectious than either the 1918 Spanish flu or the swine flu ( H1N1).
Now, scientists believe the R value of COVID 19 is 5.7!! Which means that one person with COVID-19 can potentially transmit the virus to 5 or 6 people if it is left unchecked.
This is a very, very infectious virus.
Here's the good news. The R value of COVID 19 in this country right now, even with the number of new cases climbing and the phrase, 'second wave' being bantered about, is 1.3 not 5 or 6. Our public health measures had decreased the value to less than 1 at one point this summer which made it so safe to send our kids back to school.
The public health measures worked to control this very infectious virus. Some have let go of these measures but it is not too late to get the control of this virus back. It is not too late.
R value of 5 - 6 means one person can transmit to five or six others. Add a mask, 6 feet, sanitizing hands, social bubbles and limits to the number that can gather.......one infected person transmits to less than one other person and we hunker down until a vaccine gets here. Not easy, but doable. Very, Very doable.
It's a bit like pushing a wagon full of squash up a hill when you are a 56 year old gardner. Not easy, but doable!
Anne-Marie
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