Do you see what I see? Do you hear what I hear?

Do you see what I see? Do you hear what I hear? I slept like a log last night. Where does that saying come from? I was shocked when I looked at the time at 6:30 am. I had not moved or awakened during the night. That rarely happens. I feel like my pre-COVID self, full of energy and optimism. I think I know why. Something I read on the news last night filled me with dread but that was quickly replaced with hope. The province has set new guidelines for PCR testing for COVID-19. It is a very short list. Ontario's testing capacity is 100,000 tests/day and Omicron is pushing us way past that capacity. The tests now need to be reserved for those at highest risk (See link at the end of this post ). Why? Because there is now rampant community spread of the Omicron variant with a test positivity rate of 30 %. That means that 30 % of the tests being done ( with a high number of tests being done daily) are positive. Of every 10 people standing in line at a COVID assessment centres, 3 are infected. That's huge. Behind those three are 1 to 3 more with whom that positive person has come in contact with. Omicron's R value may be has high as 3 which means all of those positive folks can and probably have, already spread the virus to three others. So why the renewed energy, hope and optimism? It was not just the good night's sleep. I slept well because I think this new variant and it's unexpected rapid spread is what will get us to the point where this pandemic becomes endemic. If a huge number of people out there have or are about to have COVID-19 with mild symptoms for the vast majority, that huge number will also develop immunity on top of the immunity they have from vaccination. They are protected from further infection, at least for the short term. The virus needs humans to spread. We are it's fuel. By it's very nature and the ease with which it spreads, it will soon run out of fuel. I am certainly not saying that people should throw caution to the wind and behave with any intention of getting the virus. You cannot predict who will become ill. Our hospitals are filling up. ICU's are filling up. Those are real people in the ICU and they are gravely ill. Do not 'choose' any path that may get you there. Instead, choose the prudent path. Get vaccinated. Start your vaccination series if you are not yet vaccinated. Get your third dose as soon as you can. Book one through your local public health department or family doctor's office. Limit your social contacts to less than 10 and limit the time you are together, just for now. Gather outside if that is possible. Improve the ventilation in the space you are gathering by opening windows. Wear a very high quality mask in public. Find a KN95 or an N95 that fits very tightly to your face. If you cannot access one of the above masks, wear two high quality three layer cloth masks but the masks must have a snug fit. All of these measures lower the R value of Omicron. They put barriers up against the spread of this variant. I may sound like I am contradicting myself. In one breath I am stating that the widespread transmission of this virus will cause it to run out of fuel which is a good thing and in the next breath I am suggesting we do all we can to protect ourselves against infection. Here is the deal. This virus is so transmissible that even with the barriers we should keep in place, it will spread. But the barriers significantly help prevent serious illness. THAT IS THE TICKET. Keep your armour up. It may spread but we are now protected. And once we all interact with the virus or the vaccine, Omicron runs out of fuel and COVID-19 becomes endemic and the pandemic ends. We stop acting out of fear in the face of the unknowns of a pandemic and we start managing a well controlled virus. I respect and admire Dr. Bonnie Henry. I think we are on the same page. She states, "The way the virus is changing with Omicron — that is leading us to that place sooner. The type of illness it's causing, with most of us being protected through vaccination, means that we are going to get to that place." The 'place' she is describing is the endemic phase of COVID-19. It's the time when we get back to a normal life or the post-COVID life. These are the new provincial guidelines for testing and isolation. It is extremely important that we follow them. These guidelines will allow for the safe and 'contained' spread of the Omicron variant and the protection of our vulnerable populations. The province says members of the public with symptoms of COVID-19 who don't meet the new eligibility criteria should assume they are infected and follow the new self-isolation guidelines. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-testing-isolation-guidance-1.6300831 Be safe out there. Gather safely tonight, if at all. Here's to 2022 and a highly vaccinated, much healthier year!! Anne-Marie Ahhh Yes. IT is December 31st and year end. The last day to donate if you can and get a 2021 tax receipt. Vaccines for all! Help us as we assist in the roll out of COVID vaccines in Lesotho. If you would like to be apart of this vitally important work towards making sure that vaccines are distributed in resource poor countries like Lesotho, you can donate here: https://www.braceletofhope.ca/ways-to-give/

For non-Facebook users, you can find this post here: https://braceletofhope.blogspot.com/

 

Happy 36th Wedding Anniversary!

 

One more post before the end of the year!

It is our 36th wedding anniversary today. COVID-19 is changing all sorts of plans including the plans we had for today. I am not too disappointed about this change in plans. I am pretty exhausted. I quiet day at home is just the ticket but I could not resist giving you an update....because it's looking brighter. Healthy individuals who have been vaccinated and especially those who have been boosted appear unlikely to develop severe infections requiring hospitalization from Omicron. UK data analyzed by scientists from the Imperial College of London shows that those infected by the Omicron variant are 15-20 percent less likely to go to an emergency room and 40 % less likely to be hospitalized. https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-50-severity-omicron/ The Ontario Science Advisory Table Dashboard is one of my go to for Ontario information. https://covid19-sciencetable.ca/ontario-dashboard/ Take a look at this. December 28, 2021 ( Happy Anniversary) Cases/million- 844.8 Among unvaccinated people 1125.4 Among vaccinated people 994.9 Reduction associated with at least 2 vaccine doses -11% I have been watching this percentage decline dramatically over the last number of weeks as Omicron becomes the dominant strain in the province. What this means is that 2 vaccines only reduces your risk of getting the Omicron variant by 11 percent and because this variant is so transmissible and so widespread, you have a high chance of getting COVID with just 2 vaccine doses. But look at this. COVID-19 Hospital Occupancy/Million- 34 Among unvaccinated people 221.3 Among vaccinated people 17.3 Reduction associated with at least 2 vaccine doses -92.2 % This number has not changed much. What this means is that two vaccines still dramatically reduce your risk for hospitalization in a province where Omicron is not the dominant strain And now this. COVID-19 ICU occupancy/ Million- 12.7 Among unvaccinated people 117.1 Among vaccinated people 3.5 Reduction associated with at least 2 vaccine doses -97 % Two vaccine doses keeps you out of the ICU. And what about boosters? A third dose of vaccine reduces your risk of getting even mild symptomatic COVID-19 caused by Omicron by 75 %. Take home message: fewer people may be ending up in hospital and the ICU with the Omicron variant compared to the delta variant. Vaccines reduce this risk even further. BUT, Omicron is so much more transmissible that those who do end up in the ICU, the frail, the elderly, those with chronic illnesses and the unvaccinated, put the province's health care system at great risk of becoming overwhelmed. 8825 cases in Ontario today. A bit of a downward trend...maybe. But the more we keep these numbers down as the Omicron wave passes, the better off we will be. Get that third dose when it is available to you. Get immunized if you have not started yet and be of good cheer. Things are starting to look up. Anne-Marie Please share. For non-Facebook users, you can find this post here: https://braceletofhope.blogspot.com/ For mental health support here: https://familyserviceguelph.on.ca/ For local assistance with anxiety and depression: www.here4help.ca CMHA WW Website: www.cmhaww.ca Here 24/7 at 1-844-HERE-247 or www.here247.ca. And for post-secondary students, Good2Talk https://good2talk.ca/

The New Year!

 How is everyone doing out there?

The Omicron wave is upon us. One week to go in the holiday season.

The province reported 9,826 new cases on Sunday and a record 10,412 new cases on Saturday with more than 9400 cases reported today. This is likely a vast underestimate of the actual number of new cases out there. A vast underestimate. Interpret these numbers with caution. Each of us may now know of many people in our social circles who have or have had COVID. Assume that if you have symptoms of a head cold that it is COVID until proven otherwise and if you cannot access a PCR test isolate for days from the start of your symptoms. Here is a review of the symptoms caused by the Omicron variant:

Most common-

Cough

Fatigue

Congestion

Runny nose

Less common-

Fever

Loss of sense of smell

Loss of appetite

Brain fog

Demands for diagnostic testing continue to outstrip the available supply. Accessing DNA PCR nasopharyngeal testing ( the most accurate form of testing for COVID-19 and the gold standard) is very difficult as testing centres continue to be overwhelmed. Book an appointment if you think you need one. It may take a week but a negative test is very reassuring. Rapid antigen test kits are also tough to find. I did one of these a couple of days ago and there are quite a few steps to follow. Take your time when doing these tests and follow the instructions carefully. The swab needs to be twirled in the front of your nose and it should sting a bit as you do this. It is more accurate if you dig a little, not to the point of damaging tissue but it should sting. Remember that the rapid antigen test is most accurate in symptomatic people who have a high likelihood of having COVID-19. The test is better at picking up proteins from the virus if the virus is actually there. Don't rely on a negative test if you are symptom free.

A higher number of young adults aged 20-39 are becoming infected. This age group accounted for 47 per cent of today's cases. People aged 40 to 59 make up 25 per cent of the new cases and children make up 20 per cent.

Age groups that are socializing more and naturally have more social contacts are more likely to have the Omicron variant transmitted to them. By far most young people who are double or triple vaccinated are developing mild symptoms from this variant but they can transmit to the more frail and vulnerable. It is these folks and the unvaccinated that are ending up in the ICU.

This is a story about a very small sample size. Of the three hundred people we vaccinated at my office in the week leading up the Christmas, five, that I know of, tested positive in the days following their third dose. All were in their twenties and early thirties and all had mild or no symptoms. I spoke to one 30 year old patient who was not vaccinated and he was in big trouble with severe shortness of breath. If our healthcare system was fully functioning, he would have been admitted for observation at least but instead, he could barely make it out of his room without feeling like he had just run a marathon ( his words). His symptoms are so severe that I have no doubt that he will be left with longterm symptoms.

The number of people in hospital with COVID 19 remains small with 176 in the ICU up from 164 last week; a slow but steady increase that will become significant as we move into January.

46,000 vaccines were administered yesterday. That's a lot of healthcare workers that took time out of their Christmas traditions to vaccinate. THANK YOU!

These are very hopeful numbers: 90.7% of Ontarians 12+ have had one dose and 88.0% have had two doses. I am simply amazed by that. Amazed. Well done Ontario. Double vaccinated people are 70 % less likely to end up with serious symptoms.

Please praise and support Ontario's pharmacists. They have given a vast number of vaccines and continue to work diligently to provide PCR and rapid antigen tests both of which are now in short supply.

Almost three million people in Ontario have received a third dose of vaccine. These folks are 80 to 90 % less likely to develop serious illness from the Omicron variant. Book an appointment for a third dose through your local public health department as soon as you can.

I am going under for the next few days. I have promised myself no to utter the words COVID or Omicron. A brief reprieve.

Be safe this week. I remember when my kids were in their teens. As they left the house for this or that I would say, "Make good choices". We will navigate the Omicron storm if we all make good choices.

Happy New Year!

Anne-Marie

Please share.

For non-Facebook users, you can find this post here:

https://braceletofhope.blogspot.com/

For mental health support here:

https://familyserviceguelph.on.ca/

For local assistance with anxiety and depression:

www.here4help.ca

CMHA WW Website: www.cmhaww.ca

Here 24/7 at 1-844-HERE-247 or www.here247.ca.

And for post-secondary students, Good2Talk

https://good2talk.ca/

Some not so good news!

 Some not so good news but some important advice that will pull us through.

4,177 new cases of COVID-19 in Ontario today. Up from 3301 yesterday and 1476 a week ago. The World Health Organization has just announced that Omicron is now in 89 countries. The number of new daily cases is doubling at a rate of 1.3-5.0 days. That is very, very fast. The virus is spreading even in highly vaccinated countries with many European countries announcing new public health restrictions. The Netherlands, lots of Dutch in my genes, has announced a national lockdown with only essential stores open and gathering limits over Christmas of only 4 people indoors. Why so extreme? Because the Dutch are smart people and they have been watching the science coming out of Norway and the UK. So, here's some of the science as we know it today: Omicron is highly transmissible. Behind it's rapid spread are a set of mutations that give it an edge over delta and previous variants. Omicron has roughly 50 mutations. At least 30 are on the spike protein. The spike protein is the protein on the surface of the virus that essentially acts as a key which opens up receptor sites ( or windows, let's say) on the surface of human cells. The COVID-19 virus has a particular affinity for our respiratory cells; the cells in our upper and lower respiratory tract. The spike protein allows the virus to enter those cells where the virus uses the cells machinery to replicate itself, killing the cell. Billions more viruses are now released into the blood stream and spread to other cells that have not yet been infected. The mutations on the Omicron variant have changed the spike protein making it a more precise key that opens up more windows to our cells allowing the virus to enter in very effectively. The vaccines we have allow us to produce antibodies to the virus's spike protein which then kill the virus. The antibodies we produce against the COVID-19 virus either through vaccination or natural infection are now less able to prevent the Omicron from entering the cells in our respiratory system. Antibodies need to be able to stick to the spike proteins in order to kill the cell. There needs to be a close to perfect match between antibody and protein. Mutations in the protein change it's structure. If our antibodies no longer match, Omicron is allowed to enter the cell and go on it's merry way, replicating and spreading. What does this mean? We call viruses like these very fit viruses. It's winning the turf war against Delta which may actually help us in the end. But we now know that Omicron can spread rapidly even through populations that are highly vaccinated.....like our population. Why is Omicron more transmissible: 1/I t seems to be more able to bind to and break into human cells 2/ It substantially evades the immunity gained from past infection or vaccination ( gets past our antibodies). 3/ It replicates faster once in our bodies. It infects and multiplies 70 times faster in the upper airway than the Delta variant. But not so well in the lower airway or our lungs. 4/ It starts transmitting to others earlier. An infected person can start spreading the virus within three days rather than six days The Omicron variant replicates less efficiently in the lungs than the original version of the virus which could explain why Omicron has been linked to less severe disease. It likes the upper airway or the bronchus where it causes a bronchitis or a cold with a cough. It is not as good at infecting the cells in your lungs where it would cause a pneumonia which makes you very sick and more likely to require hospitalization and ICU admission for assistance in breathing. Cold-like symptoms appear to be the predominant feature of Omicron in the fully vaccinated. Here are the symptoms to watch for: Most common- Cough Fatigue Congestion Runny nose Less common- Fever Loss of sense of smell Loss of appetite Brain fog What can we do??? 1/ Get a COVID booster dose. Two doses of mRNA vaccine are only 34 % effective against Omicron meaning that two doses of vaccine reduce your risk of getting the Omicron variant by 34 %. Vaccine effectiveness after two doses against hospitalization from Omicron is 30-60 %. Why the large range? Because not all the information is in yet and whether folks end up in hospital also depends on the age of the population and the amount of community spread. With the booster dose of mRNA vaccine, the vaccine series reduces the risk of getting COVID by 70 % ( pfizer;UK). Vaccine effectiveness against hospitalization caused by serious infection from Omicron is 80-90 %. Again, all of these numbers are coming out of early data. We are following Norway very closely as they have one of the best testing surveillance systems in the world and their numbers are climbing fast. I will be blunt. From my research, these numbers will change and we will likely find that vaccines are somewhat less effective than the stats quoted in this post. But, we do know that a third dose makes a significant difference. Get a booster! Starting Monday, everyone over the of 18 are eligible for a booster, provided it's been at least three months since their second dose 2/ Here is some advise I have never given before. We now know that COVID-19 is airborne. There is no doubt of that. If Omicron is in the air and it gets near your nose, you will get the virus IF you are not wearing a mask, you are not vaccinated and if the room that you are in is not ventilated. I like this video just out from Health Canada on ways to improve and air filtration in your home. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZZjTT4nrWu4 Ventilation is key to the safety of your indoor gathering. It replaces stale indoor air with fresh outdoor air which helps to reduce the levels of infectious particles in the air. People can open windows and doors to create a cross-breeze of fresh air. They can also use air filters with their heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) system or portable air purifiers with a high efficiency particulate air (HEPA) filter, it advises. We had a Christmas gathering several weeks ago when you could still have 25 people indoors. It was hilarious. I kept opening windows. We had our overhead fans on. The guests kept complaining that it was cold. I kept the windows open. They thought I was going a little overboard. Turns out, I was not. Sadly, I have reduced my expectations for Christmas again this year. A freezer full of food and a menu that could feed a small village have helped me get to this point. My tree with it's twinkling lights brings me joy. The sun on the sparkling snow is one of my favourite weather 'events'. The quietness of the house. My clean counters. My Christmas cactuses in full bloom. A carrot pulled from my garden on December 18th. That pile of books held up by my wall that I know I will get to this winter. It is a new life but it is good and I can learn to adjust, again, as the world wages war on COVID-19. Get vaccinated. Get a booster. Limit, limit, limit close contacts with humans without a high quality mask and good ventilation. Joy is never far off. We may need to look for it in different places now. I will post links for folks that are experiencing difficulties again. My apologies for not doing this for awhile now. This is not easy but we will overcome. Anne-Marie Please share.

For non-Facebook users, you can find this post here:

https://braceletofhope.blogspot.com/

A Sunday morning post

It's a beautiful day, -2 degrees and calm. Quite a change from yesterday's 15 degrees with high whipping winds. Canadians tolerate and maybe even enjoy rapid changes in weather. You know the saying, " If you don't like the weather, just wait 5 minutes". We know and can handle extremes. We understand how to manage abrupt and significant changes.

My husband and I went out last night to spend the evening with friends we have known for 38 years. That number shocks me. They wanted us to watch the Apple TV series, 'Ted Lasso'. Their power was out which disabled their internet which changed our plans so we filled a couple of hours with conversation, debate, laughter and reminiscing. When the power flickered on I experienced THE 'Ted Lasso' phenomenon. I knew this series had cheered a lot of people through the early months of the pandemic. It will take some thought for me to figure out why this show captivated millions of people but one word comes to mind as I think this through, 'heartwarming'. Somehow, I went to bed last night feeling joyful and hopeful and I feel the same way this morning. My purpose here was not to discuss Ted Lasso but it was irresistible.

My point was the weather and how resilient we are. The walk to our car last night was like walking through a blizzard but when we were in the car, we talked as if the significant weather event was just part of the day and hardly worth more than a remark. When I left the car and stood at our dear friends door it was as if 86 km/hour winds and a sudden drop in temperature from 15 degrees to 3 was just part of the day.

Yesterday, I behaved like COVID-19 and the threat of a new variant was just part of my day, just part of my life but not the focus of it. I was on a mission this weekend to get the Christmas baking done, tree up and gifts wrapped. I'll only accomplish part of that mission but as I did, that peace and calm and joy that can come with this season....came and I am grateful. No one will eat all this stuff but I still cook and bake as if 35 people will be around my table. I was never meant to move too far from my kitchen but however far I've gone, this is where my heart is.

Omicron is here and we need to adapt to it as quickly as we adapt to extreme changes in weather. We have the tools to do this. We can stay calm. We can find joy and peace. We can stay the course and focus on the end of this difficult season. I can't believe I am quoting Ted Lasso but I think he says this, " I don't keep track of the wins or losses, it's how the players become the best people they can be". Yeah, heart warming but deep and full of important messages.

The Ontario Science table dashboard states that 11% of new COVID cases in the province are now caused by Omicron. The estimated R value of this variant is 3.12. Delta's R value is 1.12. That's a significant difference. If you are infected with the omicron variant and standing in a room with ten other people, you could transmit to three other people in that room. That's highly transmissible.

Back to the same dashboard which can be found here by the way: https://covid19-sciencetable.ca/ontario-dashboard/.

Here are some hopeful statistics:

COVID-19 cases per 1 million per day

Among the unvaccinated - 263

Among the vaccinated - 62.5

Reduction associated with full vaccination - 76.2%

That means that with both delta and omicron circulating in the community, our vaccines are not as effective at stopping transmission of COVID-19 ( previously 90% effective) but still very effective. Breakthrough infections are occurring which means that even in a gathering of four fully vaccinated people watching Ted Lasso, we should be careful.

It gets better.

COVID-19 Hospital Occupancy per million

Among unvaccinated - 121

Among fully vaccinated - 9.7

Reduction associated with full vaccination - 92%

And even better

COVID-19 ICU occupancy per 1 million

Among the unvaccinated - 70.8

Among fully vaccianted - 3.0

Reduction associated with full vaccination - 95.7 %

And this is where it counts: How many end up critically ill? How many will need the hospital or the ICU? Will our ICU capacity become overwhelmed causing a further backlog in the system? All this remains to be seen.

Here is the hopeful scenario. Omicron could be much more transmissible than Delta which means it will take over as the dominant strain, pushing delta aside. But, omicron may not be capable of causing severe illness....IN THE FULLY VACCINATED. There is mounting evidence for this hopeful scenario.

From Dr. Anthony Fauci:

" People should still be cautious about coming to conclusions about the nature of omicron.....there is preliminary evidence that while COVID-19 vaccines may be less effective against the variant, it may cause less severe disease than delta, the variant currently dominant in Canada and globally."

So, for we the general population who must suffer the winds of change of this pandemic, take it in stride. Find what brings you joy and practise it. Focus on peace and calm. Stay positive and hopeful because it looks like, with vaccines and masking and public health measures especially for gathering, and rapid tests....we have got this too.

There will be an end to this pandemic. No doubt. COVID will become a natural ( endemic and less threatening) part of our lives just like the seasons and the abrupt changes they bring. We know how to do this.

Anne-Marie

Please share.

Help us as we assist in the roll out of COVID vaccines in Lesotho. If you would like to be apart of this vitally important work towards making sure that vaccines are distributed in resource poor countries like Lesotho, you can donate here:

https://www.braceletofhope.ca/ways-to-give/

For non-Facebook users, you can find this post here:

https://braceletofhope.blogspot.com/