It's a beautiful day, -2 degrees and calm. Quite a change from yesterday's 15 degrees with high whipping winds. Canadians tolerate and maybe even enjoy rapid changes in weather. You know the saying, " If you don't like the weather, just wait 5 minutes". We know and can handle extremes. We understand how to manage abrupt and significant changes.
My husband and I went out last night to spend the evening with friends we have known for 38 years. That number shocks me. They wanted us to watch the Apple TV series, 'Ted Lasso'. Their power was out which disabled their internet which changed our plans so we filled a couple of hours with conversation, debate, laughter and reminiscing. When the power flickered on I experienced THE 'Ted Lasso' phenomenon. I knew this series had cheered a lot of people through the early months of the pandemic. It will take some thought for me to figure out why this show captivated millions of people but one word comes to mind as I think this through, 'heartwarming'. Somehow, I went to bed last night feeling joyful and hopeful and I feel the same way this morning. My purpose here was not to discuss Ted Lasso but it was irresistible.
My point was the weather and how resilient we are. The walk to our car last night was like walking through a blizzard but when we were in the car, we talked as if the significant weather event was just part of the day and hardly worth more than a remark. When I left the car and stood at our dear friends door it was as if 86 km/hour winds and a sudden drop in temperature from 15 degrees to 3 was just part of the day.
Yesterday, I behaved like COVID-19 and the threat of a new variant was just part of my day, just part of my life but not the focus of it. I was on a mission this weekend to get the Christmas baking done, tree up and gifts wrapped. I'll only accomplish part of that mission but as I did, that peace and calm and joy that can come with this season....came and I am grateful. No one will eat all this stuff but I still cook and bake as if 35 people will be around my table. I was never meant to move too far from my kitchen but however far I've gone, this is where my heart is.
Omicron is here and we need to adapt to it as quickly as we adapt to extreme changes in weather. We have the tools to do this. We can stay calm. We can find joy and peace. We can stay the course and focus on the end of this difficult season. I can't believe I am quoting Ted Lasso but I think he says this, " I don't keep track of the wins or losses, it's how the players become the best people they can be". Yeah, heart warming but deep and full of important messages.
The Ontario Science table dashboard states that 11% of new COVID cases in the province are now caused by Omicron. The estimated R value of this variant is 3.12. Delta's R value is 1.12. That's a significant difference. If you are infected with the omicron variant and standing in a room with ten other people, you could transmit to three other people in that room. That's highly transmissible.
Back to the same dashboard which can be found here by the way: https://covid19-sciencetable.ca/ontario-dashboard/.
Here are some hopeful statistics:
COVID-19 cases per 1 million per day
Among the unvaccinated - 263
Among the vaccinated - 62.5
Reduction associated with full vaccination - 76.2%
That means that with both delta and omicron circulating in the community, our vaccines are not as effective at stopping transmission of COVID-19 ( previously 90% effective) but still very effective. Breakthrough infections are occurring which means that even in a gathering of four fully vaccinated people watching Ted Lasso, we should be careful.
It gets better.
COVID-19 Hospital Occupancy per million
Among unvaccinated - 121
Among fully vaccinated - 9.7
Reduction associated with full vaccination - 92%
And even better
COVID-19 ICU occupancy per 1 million
Among the unvaccinated - 70.8
Among fully vaccianted - 3.0
Reduction associated with full vaccination - 95.7 %
And this is where it counts: How many end up critically ill? How many will need the hospital or the ICU? Will our ICU capacity become overwhelmed causing a further backlog in the system? All this remains to be seen.
Here is the hopeful scenario. Omicron could be much more transmissible than Delta which means it will take over as the dominant strain, pushing delta aside. But, omicron may not be capable of causing severe illness....IN THE FULLY VACCINATED. There is mounting evidence for this hopeful scenario.
From Dr. Anthony Fauci:
" People should still be cautious about coming to conclusions about the nature of omicron.....there is preliminary evidence that while COVID-19 vaccines may be less effective against the variant, it may cause less severe disease than delta, the variant currently dominant in Canada and globally."
So, for we the general population who must suffer the winds of change of this pandemic, take it in stride. Find what brings you joy and practise it. Focus on peace and calm. Stay positive and hopeful because it looks like, with vaccines and masking and public health measures especially for gathering, and rapid tests....we have got this too.
There will be an end to this pandemic. No doubt. COVID will become a natural ( endemic and less threatening) part of our lives just like the seasons and the abrupt changes they bring. We know how to do this.
Anne-Marie
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