Some not so good news!

 Some not so good news but some important advice that will pull us through.

4,177 new cases of COVID-19 in Ontario today. Up from 3301 yesterday and 1476 a week ago. The World Health Organization has just announced that Omicron is now in 89 countries. The number of new daily cases is doubling at a rate of 1.3-5.0 days. That is very, very fast. The virus is spreading even in highly vaccinated countries with many European countries announcing new public health restrictions. The Netherlands, lots of Dutch in my genes, has announced a national lockdown with only essential stores open and gathering limits over Christmas of only 4 people indoors. Why so extreme? Because the Dutch are smart people and they have been watching the science coming out of Norway and the UK. So, here's some of the science as we know it today: Omicron is highly transmissible. Behind it's rapid spread are a set of mutations that give it an edge over delta and previous variants. Omicron has roughly 50 mutations. At least 30 are on the spike protein. The spike protein is the protein on the surface of the virus that essentially acts as a key which opens up receptor sites ( or windows, let's say) on the surface of human cells. The COVID-19 virus has a particular affinity for our respiratory cells; the cells in our upper and lower respiratory tract. The spike protein allows the virus to enter those cells where the virus uses the cells machinery to replicate itself, killing the cell. Billions more viruses are now released into the blood stream and spread to other cells that have not yet been infected. The mutations on the Omicron variant have changed the spike protein making it a more precise key that opens up more windows to our cells allowing the virus to enter in very effectively. The vaccines we have allow us to produce antibodies to the virus's spike protein which then kill the virus. The antibodies we produce against the COVID-19 virus either through vaccination or natural infection are now less able to prevent the Omicron from entering the cells in our respiratory system. Antibodies need to be able to stick to the spike proteins in order to kill the cell. There needs to be a close to perfect match between antibody and protein. Mutations in the protein change it's structure. If our antibodies no longer match, Omicron is allowed to enter the cell and go on it's merry way, replicating and spreading. What does this mean? We call viruses like these very fit viruses. It's winning the turf war against Delta which may actually help us in the end. But we now know that Omicron can spread rapidly even through populations that are highly vaccinated.....like our population. Why is Omicron more transmissible: 1/I t seems to be more able to bind to and break into human cells 2/ It substantially evades the immunity gained from past infection or vaccination ( gets past our antibodies). 3/ It replicates faster once in our bodies. It infects and multiplies 70 times faster in the upper airway than the Delta variant. But not so well in the lower airway or our lungs. 4/ It starts transmitting to others earlier. An infected person can start spreading the virus within three days rather than six days The Omicron variant replicates less efficiently in the lungs than the original version of the virus which could explain why Omicron has been linked to less severe disease. It likes the upper airway or the bronchus where it causes a bronchitis or a cold with a cough. It is not as good at infecting the cells in your lungs where it would cause a pneumonia which makes you very sick and more likely to require hospitalization and ICU admission for assistance in breathing. Cold-like symptoms appear to be the predominant feature of Omicron in the fully vaccinated. Here are the symptoms to watch for: Most common- Cough Fatigue Congestion Runny nose Less common- Fever Loss of sense of smell Loss of appetite Brain fog What can we do??? 1/ Get a COVID booster dose. Two doses of mRNA vaccine are only 34 % effective against Omicron meaning that two doses of vaccine reduce your risk of getting the Omicron variant by 34 %. Vaccine effectiveness after two doses against hospitalization from Omicron is 30-60 %. Why the large range? Because not all the information is in yet and whether folks end up in hospital also depends on the age of the population and the amount of community spread. With the booster dose of mRNA vaccine, the vaccine series reduces the risk of getting COVID by 70 % ( pfizer;UK). Vaccine effectiveness against hospitalization caused by serious infection from Omicron is 80-90 %. Again, all of these numbers are coming out of early data. We are following Norway very closely as they have one of the best testing surveillance systems in the world and their numbers are climbing fast. I will be blunt. From my research, these numbers will change and we will likely find that vaccines are somewhat less effective than the stats quoted in this post. But, we do know that a third dose makes a significant difference. Get a booster! Starting Monday, everyone over the of 18 are eligible for a booster, provided it's been at least three months since their second dose 2/ Here is some advise I have never given before. We now know that COVID-19 is airborne. There is no doubt of that. If Omicron is in the air and it gets near your nose, you will get the virus IF you are not wearing a mask, you are not vaccinated and if the room that you are in is not ventilated. I like this video just out from Health Canada on ways to improve and air filtration in your home. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZZjTT4nrWu4 Ventilation is key to the safety of your indoor gathering. It replaces stale indoor air with fresh outdoor air which helps to reduce the levels of infectious particles in the air. People can open windows and doors to create a cross-breeze of fresh air. They can also use air filters with their heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) system or portable air purifiers with a high efficiency particulate air (HEPA) filter, it advises. We had a Christmas gathering several weeks ago when you could still have 25 people indoors. It was hilarious. I kept opening windows. We had our overhead fans on. The guests kept complaining that it was cold. I kept the windows open. They thought I was going a little overboard. Turns out, I was not. Sadly, I have reduced my expectations for Christmas again this year. A freezer full of food and a menu that could feed a small village have helped me get to this point. My tree with it's twinkling lights brings me joy. The sun on the sparkling snow is one of my favourite weather 'events'. The quietness of the house. My clean counters. My Christmas cactuses in full bloom. A carrot pulled from my garden on December 18th. That pile of books held up by my wall that I know I will get to this winter. It is a new life but it is good and I can learn to adjust, again, as the world wages war on COVID-19. Get vaccinated. Get a booster. Limit, limit, limit close contacts with humans without a high quality mask and good ventilation. Joy is never far off. We may need to look for it in different places now. I will post links for folks that are experiencing difficulties again. My apologies for not doing this for awhile now. This is not easy but we will overcome. Anne-Marie Please share.

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