The tipping point: My loving message to the vaccine hesitant.

Many times over the last several months, I have spoken to patients both young and old about their vaccine hesitancy. A few of them are in their 20's and I delivered all of them. What a privilege it has been to walk newborns through the first few decades of their lives. I have a special bond with these young adults. It breaks my heart to see them walking a dangerous path.

I think for the most part they are hesitant for several reasons. The most common I hear is that they are not confident in the science, they don't believe they are at risk ( the false assumption that this infects only the elderly and the frail), the vaccines were rushed and the vaccines are not safe. They all give me the same non sequitur: " I think I will just wait to see how this goes and get the vaccine when it appears to be really necessary.".

They are waiting for their tipping point. A tipping point is the point when a group rapidly and dramatically changes it's behaviour by jumping on the band wagon of a rapidly growing new trend, idea or behaviour.....like getting vaccinated during a pandemic that none of us have ever experienced before.

So, here is my heartfelt message to you, the vaccine hesitant; this is the tipping point. Now is the time to jump on the vaccination band wagon because in very short order as we see cases increasing everyday, and possibly bending towards a fourth wave, there will be two groups of people divided by vaccines: not the vaccinated and the unvaccinated but the vaccinated and the infected.

Based on tried and true scientific and epidemiological facts, those that are not vaccinated will eventually become infected. Even the vaccinated may get the Delta variant which is why wearing masks and staying physically distance in public remains vitally important. The vaccinated are far less likely to develop serious illness or require hospitalization. More on that at the end of this post.

More than 97% of people getting hospitalized with COVID-19 in the USA are unvaccinated and 99.5% of deaths are among the unvaccinated. (US Surgeon General Dr. Vivek Murthy). I am searching for the Canadian stats but they won't be far off.

All the common metrics of the pandemic in the province are increasing after months of decline. At present the number of people requiring hospital admission in this province is starting to increase with 89 in hospital, 115 in the ICU and 76 on ventilators (https://howsmyflattening.ca/#/dashboard). There were 106 in the ICU on August 3rd and 85 on ventilators.

At the end of July, only 0.5 % of new cases were among the vaccinated who had received two doses of vaccine at least two weeks prior to testing positive, according to Public Health Ontario. Ninety-five percent of new cases were in folks who had not yet received a dose.

My ongoing heartfelt message to you, the vaccine hesitant:

1/ These vaccines are safe with the number of side effects remaining consistently and extraordinarily low. Overall, side effects have been minimal with rare blood clots occurring in 1:600,000 with the AZ and J and J vaccine, non-life threatening myocarditis in 1:600,000 with the mRNA vaccines and true, life-threatening allergic reactions to the Pfizer vaccine is low as 2.5 per 1 million doses and these reactions were in people with a known allergy to PEG, an ingredient of the vaccine.

Minimal side effects to the vaccine, very true. What is not 'minimal' is the number of deaths due to COVID-19, which is 4.2 million world wide.

Vaccines are safe. COVID-19 is deadly, even in people under 30. Get the vaccine.

2/ These vaccines were not rushed, they were resourced. The mRNA technology used in both the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines has been developed over the last three decades. What used to take ten years to prove safe and effective took 9 months with the COVID-19 vaccines. Why? Because the world's entire vaccine scientific community focused on these vaccines and billions were invested. There are three phases to the scientific steps needed in drug of vaccine development. Each phase can take years to work through not because it takes that long to prove safety and efficacy but because it takes years for researchers to find the funds needed to move on to the next phase.

3/ Despite the latest news and research showing that even among people who are vaccinated, there is some risk of getting infected with the coronavirus, the most recent data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention shows only about 6,600 breakthrough cases out of more than 163 million fully vaccinated people, and more than a quarter of those asymptomatic. Put another way: More than 99.99% of people who are fully vaccinated have not had a breakthrough case resulting in hospitalization or death. And yes, that's even taking into account the more transmissible Delta variant.

Vaccines are extremely effective even against the variants. Vaccines are safe. And I will repeat that COVID 19 is deadly.

This is the time. This is your tipping point. BE vaccinated, not infected. For those 20 and now 30 somethings that I delivered, your life has always been, in part, in my hands. That won't change no matter where you go or what you do. From my hands to my heart, please get vaccinated.

For those of us who are vaccinated, be of good cheer. That sounds ridiculous doesn't it. We will be wearing masks for a while. In the past, with each wave, increasing cases meant lockdowns and tight restrictions. I doubt we will need to go there again and I am not alone in this thinking. The high rate of vaccination in this province makes it very unlikely that we will need another blanket lockdown as cases grow. Stay safe. Wear a mask while around groups of people whose vaccination status is not known to you and be particularly careful with indoor gatherings unless everyone is double vaccinated with the last dose received more than two weeks ago.

Anne-Marie

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For non-Facebook users, you can find this post here:

https://braceletofhope.blogspot.com/

And if you'd like to help Bracelet of Hope work towards making sure that Lesotho has access to these vaccines, donate here:

https://www.braceletofhope.ca/ways-to-

The incredibly transmissible Delta variant and....chickenpox!

 

The news is not good but there is something we can do about it.

The Delta variant is more transmissible than......

related caronaviruses like MERS and SARS

ebola

the common cold

seasonal flu

the 1918 Spanish flu

and smallpox.

The Delta variant is less transmissible than.....

measles

and chicken pox....but not by much.

Remember the R value? It is the the average number of people that will be infected by one sick person. An R value of 7 means that, on average, one sick person will infect seven other individuals.

Measles is one of the most infectious pathogens we know about with an R value of 12-18. Measles is so contagious that up to 90 percent of people close to an infected person who are not immune will also become infected. ( stat from the CDC).

Chickenpox has an R value that ranges between 9 and 12. On average, for example, one child with chickenpox can infect between 9 and 12 other children in close proximity.

Do you remember 'chickenpox parties'? I do. Before the chicken pox vaccine, people would take their children to the home of an infected child so that their child could get chickenpox before the age of five when serious illness was less likely. It sounds archaic today. Imagine subjecting your child to that. Frankly, most of us got chickenpox just by sitting in the grocery cart while our parents shopped. It was everywhere at certain times of the year. No parties were really necessary but parents did panic if their child had not had chickenpox before they were school aged. I remember my children suffering for days with the 'minor' illness caused by chickenpox. I remember suffering myself.

Do you hear of cases of chickenpox or measles anymore? No. Not in this country. Why? Because of vaccines. The measles vaccine was created in 1963. The varicella vaccine, for chickenpox, was introduced to North America in 1995. Too late for my kids.

And COVID-19? The initial COVID-19 virus, R value of 2.3-2.7 the Alpha (United Kingdom variant), R value of 4-5. The Delta variant has an estimated R value of between 5 and 9.5. Very close to chickenpox and not so far off from measles. ( Centre for Disease Control and other sources).

We immunized the population against measles and chickenpox and these diseases are almost non-existent. We now need to rapidly immunize the population against the delta variant of COVID-19. Barriers to transmission reduce the R value to 0. Barriers like masks, distancing and immunity.

COVID-19 vaccines provide high levels of protection against severe disease caused by the Delta variant. The vaccines may be less effective at preventing infection or transmission as we have learned in the past week but they still prevent more than 90 % of severe disease.

One vaccine does not do the trick. The effectiveness of preventing severe disease after one dose of either a mRNA vaccine or the AZ vaccine is only 30 %.

Get two doses and please, get them quickly. Vaccines are widely available in Canada. We protected our children against chickenpox and measles. Let's protect the country from the Delta variant. It just makes good sense.

As for kids"

We are hoping that vaccines for kids will be available by November. Until then, I think children under twelve should wear masks in school. Hopefully, the fact that most of the adults in their life are vaccinated will add to their protection. The key is that we get to 90 % vaccination rate before schools starts. Then we can all breath a sigh of relief.

Corrections for my last post:

There are 36.6 new cases /100,000 in the USA.

Canada has an infection rate of 2.4 cases/100,000.

And, the delta variant is 50 % more infectious than the alpha variant.

Accuracy is key and thanks to a few of my nerdy science, statistics followers, this Facebook page remains accurate.

Please share.

Anne-Marie

Oh and who knew that basil grows this well in the garden. I will be in pesto heaven over the next few weeks!

For non-Facebook users, you can find this post here:

https://braceletofhope.blogspot.com/

And if you'd like to help Bracelet of Hope work towards making sure that Lesotho has access to these vaccines, donate here:

https://www.braceletofhope.ca/ways-to-

Here's the low down on the Delta.

 

I will put the take home messages right here out front:

1/ The Detla variant is 50 times more infectious than the Alpha variant. That fact has not changed.

2/ TWO mRNA COVID-19 vaccines are 90 % effective against the delta variant. That fact has not changed. Not one vaccine, but two. Get two doses.

3/ Fully vaccinated people who find themselves in a situation where they are in close contact with a large group of unvaccinated people who may be infected with the Delta variant can pick up COVID-19. They may be able to spread it to others. This is a new finding.

4/ People who are fully vaccinated are far less likely to develop severe symptoms, hospitalizations, deaths even if they become infected with the delta variant. That is a relief.

5/ In the USA masks are now recommended in public either indoors or outdoors in areas where transmission rates are high wether you are vaccinated or not. That's a shift in recommendations.

So, what about Canada. Click this link and scroll down to take a look at this graph:

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

Only 50 % of Americans are fully vaccinated and 58 % have received one dose. In Canada, 67% are fully vaccinated and 81 % have received one dose (https://bit.ly/3xm95qy).

That's a massive difference. So, in a country with lower vaccination rates, there is more circulating virus. On Friday, there were 122,000 new cases of COVID-19 in the US which is a rate 120/100,000. Canada had 907 which is a rate of 1.5/100,000.

https://www.statnews.com/feature/coronavirus/covid-19-tracker/

The original COVID-19 virus and the alpha variant are not as fit as the delta variant. A fully vaccinated person ( let's call them Tom) could walk by a person with the original COVID-19 virus or the alpha variant and if they sneezed in close proximity to Tom, a load of virus would enter Tom's nose. But these strains of virus are not as 'sticky' as the delta variant. When the virus enters Tom's nose, his immune systems kicks a lot of it right out at the site of infection, before the virus gets into his blood. A much smaller amount of virus may get through his initial immune defence mechanisms and enter his blood stream where the antibodies he has produced as a result of two vaccinations, neutralize the virus. He does not get COVID -19 and there is no COVID-19 in his nose that he can spread.

In Canada, Tom doesn't find himself in this scenario very easily because far fewer people in his community have COVID-19 and far more are fully vaccinated.

Now meet Mary who is a fully vaccinated person in Florida where there is much more circulating virus. She goes to several indoor and outdoor social events on the July 4th weekend. Masks are not mandatory and less than 50 % of the population is vaccinated. She stands beside a person who has the delta variant. They are listening to a band and are in close proximity for more than 5 minutes without masks. The delta variant happily infects Mary's nose but it is so sticky and so fit that 1,000 times more virus is able to hang out in her nasal passages, breaching her initial defence mechanisms, getter into her blood in huge numbers ( a high viral load) where the COVID antibodies she has developed after two doses of vaccine work to destroy most of the virus but enough is left behind to infect her cells causing a minor illness and maybe enough to cause a more serious illness requiring hospitalization. But she survives.

Unfortunately, Mary went home after this event and within a few days there was enough virus still hanging out in her nose that she passes the virus on to all of her family.

The CDC reversed it's stance on wearing masks last week because of this exact scenario shown in a study published by CDC Friday, 'The Barnstable County Study'. Of the 469 people who were infected with COVID 19, all had the delta variant and 74 % were fully vaccinated. Seventy four percent is high but not if most of the people at these social events were vaccinated which was the case.

What does all this mean? It's survival of the fittest. All living things are wired to survive. Viruses are no different. As long as they are provided with an opportunity to replicate, they will mutate and the most fit mutations will outpace the weaker viruses and become dominant. Viruses that are more fit, infect with greater ease and at greater speed.

The answer; DON'T LET THE VIRUS REPLICATE. It cannot replicate without a human host that has no defences against it. Our greatest defence are antibodies created after natural infection and immunization. The next line of defence, don't let the dirty buggers get in in the first place. Wear a mask and keep your distance if you are not confident that the folks in the crowd you are hanging out with are fully vaccinated.

Here is what I believe: Masks will stay in certain scenarios and that is just smart. The closer we get to 90 or 100 % vaccinated, the quicker the masks will go but not in short order. It will take so much longer to be free of COVID-19 if our vaccination rates stay at 80 %. I don't believe we will have to shut down our economies or head home from work or school yet again.

Get vaccinated. Get vaccinated quickly. Block the delta variant before it creates a fourth wave. In this province and in every other province that continues to move slowly through their exit plans, this is entirely possible.

Anne-Marie

Please share.

Yep, here we are. Your 'Finding the Balance During COVID-19' webinar team. We are all vaccinated and we met in person this past week. What a pleasure it was to see these women, some of them, for the first time in person.

For non-Facebook users, you can find this post here:

https://braceletofhope.blogspot.com/

And if you'd like to help Bracelet of Hope work towards making sure that Lesotho has access to these vaccines, donate here:

https://www.braceletofhope.ca/ways-to-