The tipping point: My loving message to the vaccine hesitant.

Many times over the last several months, I have spoken to patients both young and old about their vaccine hesitancy. A few of them are in their 20's and I delivered all of them. What a privilege it has been to walk newborns through the first few decades of their lives. I have a special bond with these young adults. It breaks my heart to see them walking a dangerous path.

I think for the most part they are hesitant for several reasons. The most common I hear is that they are not confident in the science, they don't believe they are at risk ( the false assumption that this infects only the elderly and the frail), the vaccines were rushed and the vaccines are not safe. They all give me the same non sequitur: " I think I will just wait to see how this goes and get the vaccine when it appears to be really necessary.".

They are waiting for their tipping point. A tipping point is the point when a group rapidly and dramatically changes it's behaviour by jumping on the band wagon of a rapidly growing new trend, idea or behaviour.....like getting vaccinated during a pandemic that none of us have ever experienced before.

So, here is my heartfelt message to you, the vaccine hesitant; this is the tipping point. Now is the time to jump on the vaccination band wagon because in very short order as we see cases increasing everyday, and possibly bending towards a fourth wave, there will be two groups of people divided by vaccines: not the vaccinated and the unvaccinated but the vaccinated and the infected.

Based on tried and true scientific and epidemiological facts, those that are not vaccinated will eventually become infected. Even the vaccinated may get the Delta variant which is why wearing masks and staying physically distance in public remains vitally important. The vaccinated are far less likely to develop serious illness or require hospitalization. More on that at the end of this post.

More than 97% of people getting hospitalized with COVID-19 in the USA are unvaccinated and 99.5% of deaths are among the unvaccinated. (US Surgeon General Dr. Vivek Murthy). I am searching for the Canadian stats but they won't be far off.

All the common metrics of the pandemic in the province are increasing after months of decline. At present the number of people requiring hospital admission in this province is starting to increase with 89 in hospital, 115 in the ICU and 76 on ventilators (https://howsmyflattening.ca/#/dashboard). There were 106 in the ICU on August 3rd and 85 on ventilators.

At the end of July, only 0.5 % of new cases were among the vaccinated who had received two doses of vaccine at least two weeks prior to testing positive, according to Public Health Ontario. Ninety-five percent of new cases were in folks who had not yet received a dose.

My ongoing heartfelt message to you, the vaccine hesitant:

1/ These vaccines are safe with the number of side effects remaining consistently and extraordinarily low. Overall, side effects have been minimal with rare blood clots occurring in 1:600,000 with the AZ and J and J vaccine, non-life threatening myocarditis in 1:600,000 with the mRNA vaccines and true, life-threatening allergic reactions to the Pfizer vaccine is low as 2.5 per 1 million doses and these reactions were in people with a known allergy to PEG, an ingredient of the vaccine.

Minimal side effects to the vaccine, very true. What is not 'minimal' is the number of deaths due to COVID-19, which is 4.2 million world wide.

Vaccines are safe. COVID-19 is deadly, even in people under 30. Get the vaccine.

2/ These vaccines were not rushed, they were resourced. The mRNA technology used in both the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines has been developed over the last three decades. What used to take ten years to prove safe and effective took 9 months with the COVID-19 vaccines. Why? Because the world's entire vaccine scientific community focused on these vaccines and billions were invested. There are three phases to the scientific steps needed in drug of vaccine development. Each phase can take years to work through not because it takes that long to prove safety and efficacy but because it takes years for researchers to find the funds needed to move on to the next phase.

3/ Despite the latest news and research showing that even among people who are vaccinated, there is some risk of getting infected with the coronavirus, the most recent data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention shows only about 6,600 breakthrough cases out of more than 163 million fully vaccinated people, and more than a quarter of those asymptomatic. Put another way: More than 99.99% of people who are fully vaccinated have not had a breakthrough case resulting in hospitalization or death. And yes, that's even taking into account the more transmissible Delta variant.

Vaccines are extremely effective even against the variants. Vaccines are safe. And I will repeat that COVID 19 is deadly.

This is the time. This is your tipping point. BE vaccinated, not infected. For those 20 and now 30 somethings that I delivered, your life has always been, in part, in my hands. That won't change no matter where you go or what you do. From my hands to my heart, please get vaccinated.

For those of us who are vaccinated, be of good cheer. That sounds ridiculous doesn't it. We will be wearing masks for a while. In the past, with each wave, increasing cases meant lockdowns and tight restrictions. I doubt we will need to go there again and I am not alone in this thinking. The high rate of vaccination in this province makes it very unlikely that we will need another blanket lockdown as cases grow. Stay safe. Wear a mask while around groups of people whose vaccination status is not known to you and be particularly careful with indoor gatherings unless everyone is double vaccinated with the last dose received more than two weeks ago.

Anne-Marie

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