Living Life with COVID until the fourth wave passes

Well Folks, it is going to be awhile before COVID-19 passes to a stage where it is endemic. What does endemic mean? It means that COVID-19 will not likely be eradicated for years to come. Instead it will be found regularly, and possibly seasonally among at risk people. The Delta variant has changed to goal posts. It is so much more transmissible than any other variant we have seen. Herd immunity will not be possible until vaccines are approved for use in kids and > 90 % are immune through illness or vaccination. What is herd immunity anyway? We have reached herd immunity with many other viruses as a result of vaccinations. Diseases like measles, mumps, rubella, diphtheria and pertussis are all illnesses rarely seen because most of the population is immune. These illnesses are harder to transmit so when say 75% of the 'herd' is immune as a result of immunizations or resolved infections, the rest of the at risk population, those who have not had the illness or not been immunized are safe. Here is a great definition: Herd immunity occurs when a large portion of the population (the herd) becomes immune to a disease, making the spread of disease from person to person unlikely. As a result, the whole community becomes protected, not just those who are vaccinated. There is a formula that is used to calculate the herd immunity threshold. It is 1–1/R0. I will leave this for the smart people to understand but, check it out. R0 is the R value or reproductive number which is the number of people 1 infected person can transmit the virus to if no protective measures are in place like masking or vaccines. The R value is used to calculate the % of people that need to be immunized to protect those who are not and push the virus into a slow, steady decline until it is eradicated or under such tight control that it rarely pops up. That's herd immunity. A new study published this month found that the delta variant is twice as transmissible as all variants that preceded it, with an R0 of 5. One person can transmit to 5 other people in a flash. (https://academic.oup.com/jtm/advance-article/doi/10.1093/jtm/taab124/6346388) That's very, very transmissible. It is way too easy to catch COVID-19 ( the delta variant). Masks need to stay on. We need to maintain our distance in a crowd or gathering if the vaccine status of the people around us is unknown. Once we reach >90% vaccinated, then we coast. There will be rare breakthrough infections but most will be mild. Few will required hospitalizations and only 3 % of the rare breakthrough infections will end up in the ICU. THAT IS WHEN WE CAN EXPECT COVID-19 TRANSMISSIONS TO ENTER A LONGTERM DECLINE. I like the sound of that; 'Longterm decline of COVID-10'. ( quoted and paraphrased from the Chief Medical Officer of Health on Ontario Dr. Kieran Moore) Greater than 90 % of the entire population, including children under 12, that is where we need to go. Vaccinating children under 12 is still months away. Children need to get back to school safely. At present, 65 % of all Canadians are fully vaccinated and 66% of all Ontarions are fully vaccinated. These numbers will shoot up once we get the kids under 12 involved. This is important. It is believed that, like last fall, the majority of the spread of COVID-19 to children will not be in the classroom setting but in situations outside the classroom like sleep overs, indoor birthday parties and gatherings and extracurricular activities. Vaccinated adults and masks will keep kids safe in school. Most kids can and do wear masks with ease. If your community has a high vaccination rate ( close to 90 % ) the kids are even more safe. The number we can change at this moment that will protect our kids in schools and out of school is the number of people OVER 12 that are fully vaccinated. At this time, 76 % of eligible Ontarions are fully vaccinated. Let's get that number to 90 % or more and our kids will be safe. If you are vaccine hesitant, get vaccinated for the safety of our children. The vaccine hesitant are not anti-vaxxers. They are hesitant for a variety of sound reasons. If you are one of the hesitant, let the protection of our children be what gives you the confidence you need. Yep, that's me. The past middle aged toilet paper bride and yes, that is a glass of wine in my hand. Everyone at this outdoor event was fully vaccinated. We can enjoy life in the context of COVID-19. We just need to be ever so careful. ( Photography by Alexandra Lennox. Thanks Alexandra!) Some great news, COVID-19 vaccines are now being rolled out in Lesotho and people are lining up in droves. Bracelet of Hope's mobile health unit is administering vaccines to people in remote areas. How cool is that!!! There is great hope. Anne-Marie Please share. For non-Facebook users, you can find this post here: https://braceletofhope.blogspot.com/ And if you'd like to help Bracelet of Hope work towards making sure that Lesotho has access to these vaccines, donate here: https://www.braceletofhope.ca/ways-to-give/