Fourth Wave and the fall.

 

Well, here we are. Wave number four. It feels different this time. It is different this time. Our current 7 day rolling average in the province is up to 427. We were as low as 151 in mid-July. At the end of April, the peak of the third wave, the 7 day rolling average was 4370! We crushed the third wave with vaccines and public health restrictions. Public health restrictions are eternally painful, bad for the economy, hard on the education of our children and young adults and terrible for our mental health.

I went to a wedding shower yesterday. Everyone was vaccinated and the event was held at Cassoulet Catering. It is a lovely venue with one large room that was basically open to the outdoors on both ends with dreamy gardens and trees surrounding us. Less than 25 indoors but much of the event was outdoors as we moved to the garden space for the silly games woman play at showers. I felt.....normal. I felt joy. I felt a little bit of hope for the future as this beautiful bride to be was celebrated properly with loving family and friends smothering her in love and laughter and in person.

That's what will be different this during this wave. We will have the ability to gather in person and as long as we do so with great care we will be safe. Showers, weddings, birthday parties, family gatherings, dinners in restaurants.. all of these will be possible as we move through this fourth wave provided that our vaccination rate continues to increase towards 90 % and we continue to wear masks in spaces where we are uncertain of the vaccination status of everyone around us. This ability to gather will protect us emotionally, allow our schools to get back to normal and allow our small and large business to have the ability to operating safely and consistently. It's the life blood of our community. I sure want it back. Being dressed as a toilet paper bride yesterday reminded me of how much I want it back.

For almost four straight weeks Ontario has seen increasing growth in our COVID-19 cases and with the number of new cases doubling every 10 days, we could see as many as 1200 new cases a day by the time school starts in a few weeks. To put this into perspective, the last time Ontario saw week-over-week case growth faster than what we are experiencing now was during a 10 day stretch in September of 2020 when the province ordered bars and restaurants to close down completely.

I really respect Dr. Peter Juni, scientific director of the Ontario Science Table. He has a sobering message for the unvaccinated: "If we continue in our current reopening path, the probability of the unvaccinated people across all age groups to experience infection in the next six to 12 months is 80 to 90 %. And the risk of complications from the delta variant in this unvaccinated group is tow to three times higher than with previous variants."

I talked to my epidemiologist husband about this yesterday and he agreed. Something called survival statistics that allows the smart guys in charge to determine that the probability of infection in the unvaccinated is 80 to 90 %. These stats are not just made up to set the fear of God into us. They are real and sound. It's sobering.

Juni describes our vaccine roll out as " absolutely successful". Vaccines will without a doubt make this fourth wave very different. Instead of focusing on the number of new daily cases, we need to focus on the number of hospitalizations. If the number of people without vaccine protection begin to become ill with COVID-19, our hospitals will fill up again. There are now 116 patients in hospital with COVID-19. If that number is driven up to 400 or 500, we will need restrictions imposed again.

Vaccines are of utmost importance at this critical time. Vaccination rates have slowed particularly among the youngest eligible vaccine cohorts 12 and up and particularly the 20 somethings.

I will post about the vaccine hesitant this week in an attempt to encourage them to get the shot. Stay tuned. In the meantime, enjoy the winding down days of summer and wear that mask when it is of utmost importance to do so.

Anne-Marie

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