The incredibly transmissible Delta variant and....chickenpox!

 

The news is not good but there is something we can do about it.

The Delta variant is more transmissible than......

related caronaviruses like MERS and SARS

ebola

the common cold

seasonal flu

the 1918 Spanish flu

and smallpox.

The Delta variant is less transmissible than.....

measles

and chicken pox....but not by much.

Remember the R value? It is the the average number of people that will be infected by one sick person. An R value of 7 means that, on average, one sick person will infect seven other individuals.

Measles is one of the most infectious pathogens we know about with an R value of 12-18. Measles is so contagious that up to 90 percent of people close to an infected person who are not immune will also become infected. ( stat from the CDC).

Chickenpox has an R value that ranges between 9 and 12. On average, for example, one child with chickenpox can infect between 9 and 12 other children in close proximity.

Do you remember 'chickenpox parties'? I do. Before the chicken pox vaccine, people would take their children to the home of an infected child so that their child could get chickenpox before the age of five when serious illness was less likely. It sounds archaic today. Imagine subjecting your child to that. Frankly, most of us got chickenpox just by sitting in the grocery cart while our parents shopped. It was everywhere at certain times of the year. No parties were really necessary but parents did panic if their child had not had chickenpox before they were school aged. I remember my children suffering for days with the 'minor' illness caused by chickenpox. I remember suffering myself.

Do you hear of cases of chickenpox or measles anymore? No. Not in this country. Why? Because of vaccines. The measles vaccine was created in 1963. The varicella vaccine, for chickenpox, was introduced to North America in 1995. Too late for my kids.

And COVID-19? The initial COVID-19 virus, R value of 2.3-2.7 the Alpha (United Kingdom variant), R value of 4-5. The Delta variant has an estimated R value of between 5 and 9.5. Very close to chickenpox and not so far off from measles. ( Centre for Disease Control and other sources).

We immunized the population against measles and chickenpox and these diseases are almost non-existent. We now need to rapidly immunize the population against the delta variant of COVID-19. Barriers to transmission reduce the R value to 0. Barriers like masks, distancing and immunity.

COVID-19 vaccines provide high levels of protection against severe disease caused by the Delta variant. The vaccines may be less effective at preventing infection or transmission as we have learned in the past week but they still prevent more than 90 % of severe disease.

One vaccine does not do the trick. The effectiveness of preventing severe disease after one dose of either a mRNA vaccine or the AZ vaccine is only 30 %.

Get two doses and please, get them quickly. Vaccines are widely available in Canada. We protected our children against chickenpox and measles. Let's protect the country from the Delta variant. It just makes good sense.

As for kids"

We are hoping that vaccines for kids will be available by November. Until then, I think children under twelve should wear masks in school. Hopefully, the fact that most of the adults in their life are vaccinated will add to their protection. The key is that we get to 90 % vaccination rate before schools starts. Then we can all breath a sigh of relief.

Corrections for my last post:

There are 36.6 new cases /100,000 in the USA.

Canada has an infection rate of 2.4 cases/100,000.

And, the delta variant is 50 % more infectious than the alpha variant.

Accuracy is key and thanks to a few of my nerdy science, statistics followers, this Facebook page remains accurate.

Please share.

Anne-Marie

Oh and who knew that basil grows this well in the garden. I will be in pesto heaven over the next few weeks!

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And if you'd like to help Bracelet of Hope work towards making sure that Lesotho has access to these vaccines, donate here:

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