First off, I'd like to thank one of my patients who expressed such gratitude for these posts today that he made my day. He also made me cry. Literally, he turned the day around. He reminded me how the smallest gestures of gratitude, kindness and compassion can not only get a person through a difficult day but collectively, when we are all making an effort to be kind and grateful and compassionate, we can re-direct a nation.
And that is exactly what we need to do.
Seven hundred confirmed cases today is a 42.6 % increase in the number of new cases of COVID 19 from the day before.
The numbers started to take off on September 11th when Ontario’s daily COVID-19 case count surpassed 200 for the first time since early July. In just 17 days, the number of new cases has sky-rocketed and it is the rate of the increase that is the most concerning.
Yes. It is time to call this a second wave and yes, we need to sound the alarm. I don't want to diminish this at all but perspective is important. If we become overwhelmed with fear, we cannot act.
What has also increased in the last three weeks is the number of people being tested in the province. From August 30th to September 10th the province tested just under 24,000 people each day. That number shot up and consistently surpassed 35,000 by September 18th and since September 25th we have been testing over 40,000 people everyday. God bless our front line workers in those COVID clinics!!!
Percent Positivity and the Reproduction Rate are two very important numbers that give us an idea of what the virus is really doing. Percent positivity is the percentage of all of the tests done on a given day that come back positive. In Ontario, that number is now 1.2% and is actually down by 0.2 % from the day before. The reproductive rate ( the number of people a person with COVID 19 can transmit the virus to) is 1.16. Above 1 is not good. Below one means we have this thing under control. But Ontario's R value has been above 1 since the end of July and has not climbed significantly since the middle of August.
The death rate has not change significantly either. Why am I throwing all these numbers at you? To give you some perspective and lots of hope. Because, there is lots of hope.
The numbers we need to be trouble by are the hospital admissions and ICU admissions because, as these numbers increase, we threaten the integrity of our health care system. If we push it past it's capacity, the whole system backs up and the number of people who suffer and die because of the lack of easy access to health care starts to climb unacceptably high.
September 11- 49 in hospital and 18 in the ICU
Today- 128 in the hospital and 29 in the ICU
God bless the health care team manning our emergency rooms, our hospital wards and our ICU's. God bless a province that has such great healthcare capacity in the first place. We are so lucky. Now lets respect that system, the people who man it and the lives it can save over the next few weeks.
Please reflect on these numbers and be inspired to take action. It is not too late. It is not out of control and we have time to act. Most communities in the province still have very few new daily cases. You are safe. But we need everyone and I mean everyone to respond in order to prevent COVID 19 from becoming a destructive run-away train.
Simple public health measures.
I united effort.
Now.
Stay home. Avoid gathering inside and outside. Get that mask on and leave it on while outside of your home and in public spaces. Don't be fearful. Don't be afraid. Just act. We can beat this virus but only if we deprive it of it's hosts and that is you and me.
Stay strong and keep that resolve up folks. We are in this together and we will win this together.
Anne-Marie
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