Monday 29 March 2021

Let's discuss the AstraZeneca vaccine.

 


I am just going to give you some facts. You can make your own decision about the AstraZeneca vaccine. Today, Canada's National Advisory Committee on Immunization (NACI) recommended provinces pause on the use of the AstraZeneca-Oxford COVID-19 vaccine on those under the age of 55 because of safety concerns. NACI's priority is vaccine safety. Their decision came after the European Medicines Agency ( EMA), Europe's Health Canada equivalent, investigated 25 cases of very rare blood clots out of about 20 million AstraZeneca vaccines given. On March 18th the EMA concluded that the benefits of the AstraZeneca vaccine far outweigh this risk if there is a true increased risk of the blood clots. Most of these rare blood clots occurred in women under the age of 55 ( 18 out of 25). Thus, NACI's recommendation to halt the use of the AZ vaccine in this age group pending further review of the ongoing real-time research. So, 25 cases out of 20 million vaccinations is a risk of about 1 in a million. That means that if there actually is an increased risk, the risk is 1 case of the rare blood clots out of 1 million vaccines given. 1 in a million. Let's shed some light on that: The risk of blood clots developing among new users of oral contraceptive pills ( birth control pills) is 8 out of 10,000. 34 out of 10,000 women who use hormone replacement therapy ( HRT ) will develop a blood clot. And, the risk of developing a blood clot in women in general is is 16/100,000 The Canadian maternal mortality rate ( the rate of death in women during childbirth) is 8.3 deaths per 100,000. No medical intervention is without risks. The question is, should we take that risk? That is what NACI will try to figure out in the coming weeks. Let's balance that risk of 1 in a million with the risk of COVID-19. A new briefing note from a panel of science experts advising the Ontario government on COVID-19 shows a province at a tipping point. Variants that are more deadly are circulating widely, new daily infections have reached the same number at the height of the second wave, and the number of people hospitalized is now more than 20 per cent higher than at the start of the last province-wide lockdown. These variants are more dangerous and more easily transmitted. They cause 2.5 to 4.1 deaths per 1000 detected cases. That's deaths. The risk of serious complications with the variants is double the risk of the original COVID-19 virus: twenty out of 100. Here's a quote that scared me today. ""Right now in Ontario, the pandemic is completely out of control," Dr. Peter Juni, the scientific director and a professor of medicine and epidemiology with the University of Toronto and member of Ontario's COVID-19 science advisory table. The AstraZeneca vaccine is over 70 % effective up front and prevents any deaths from COVID-19. Breath. It is not time to throw out the baby with the bath water. Let's wait and see. No blood clots have occurred in people over 60. We should continue using the AstraZeneca vaccine in this age group which is most at risk of serious complications and death from COVID-19. And....on a very positive note, Canada is now fifth in the world for the number of vaccines administered. Very nice. We will get there! Anne-Marie Please share Please note. The mass vaccination clinics in our public health unit are not yet running at full capacity. There are no 12 hour shifts or evening appointments and no appointments on weekends. With more vaccine, we will be able to ramp up but not at the present time. Just clarifying information on a previous post. For non-Facebook users, you can find this post here:
https://braceletofhope.blogspot.com/ And if you'd like to help Bracelet of Hope work towards making sure that Lesotho has access to these vaccines, donate here: https://www.braceletofhope.ca/ways-to-

1 comment:

  1. This analysis must consider the timeframes over which the risks are assessed in order to properly compare the data. I’ve yet to see that type of comparison done anywhere.

    ReplyDelete