Sunday, 2 May 2021

Fasten your seat belts! This ride is almost over. It's time to imagine a post-COVID world.



As of yesterday, 5 and a quarter million people in Ontario had been vaccinated. That is 42% of the vaccine eligible population. Source: https://howsmyflattening.ca/#/dashboard IN THE NEXT FOUR WEEKS, CANADA WILL RECEIVE 2 M DOSES OF THE PFIZER VACCINE EVERY WEEK WHICH IS MORE THAN THE DOSES WE HAVE RECEIVED IN THE LAST FOUR MONTHS. The seven day rolling average is now down to 3722. Click on this link: https://www.covid-19canada.com/graphs Scroll down to the 'New Cases Analysis by Date' under the ON graphs and click on the 7 day rolling average. April 24 4370 April 25 4094 April 26 4050 May 1 3722 May 2 3618 Case numbers are lower that we expected at this point. I would venture to say that for the first time in this pandemic we are seeing both the effects of adherence to public health restrictions and vaccinations. The number of new cases are declining. The percent positivity, R value and hospitalizations, all declining. The number of ICU admissions is still increasing to historic all-time highs (900) as is the number of people requiring ventilation (637). And, as we have seen with the previous waves, these numbers will continue to climb. There is a 2 week lag between the number of new cases and a percentage of those new cases ending up in the ICU. Source: https://howsmyflattening.ca/#/dashboard Our healthcare system is overwhelmed. In Canada, one quarter of a million elective surgeries have been cancelled. People will die on these waiting lists and many more will continue to suffer in extreme pain and disability. As a physician, I can't comment in an educated way on the disastrous effects this has had on our economy and our schools but in addition to the effects this thing has had on our institutions, our families and our mental health and in all likelihood, we will never be the same. Things could, in fact be better post-COVID but that is our choice. " In the aftermath of the health crisis, it's reasonable to expect public demands for improvement in the quality and coverage of social support and medical care, for greater attention to be paid to managing tail risks ( the probability of rare events) and for more heed to be given to the advice of scientific experts." Mark Carney- Value(s): Building a Better World for All We cannot allow governments, who will always have competing interests, to manage health crises and God-forbid that we should allow them to manage our greatest and most existential crisis; climate change. More perspective on the AstraZenca vaccine and the risks of rare blood clots: One of the rare blood clots is called a CVT or Cerebral venous thrombosis which is a blood clot of a cerebral vein in the brain. 1/ The incidence of CVT in a person with COVID -19 is 39 cases per million 2/ The incidence of CVT after receiving the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine is 4.1 cases per million 3/ The risk with the AstraZeneca vaccine is 5.0 cases per million. 4/ In the pre-COVID era, the frequency of CVT was 5 cases per million. One percent of all strokes are caused by CVT. That's before COVID-19 entered the picture. Source: https://neuro-sens.com/thrombotic-risk-and-covid-19-vaccines-new-data-and-disputes/ Take home message: these clots were extremely rare before COVID-19 and they are now a very rare side effect of the COVID-19 vaccines. Those with COVID-19 infection have a much, much greater risk of CVT and other serious blood clots. Get the first vaccine that is offered to you. Not only will these vaccines get us out of this pandemic but they will prevent the much more serious consequences of COVID-19. OTHER NEWS ABOUT VACCINES: More and more evidence from real time data shows that these vaccines prevent transmission of the virus. I will gleefully write about this once the final word is in. This infogram reviews when the vaccines become effective. https://infogram.com/vaccine-efficacy-rates-1hxr4zx0y3wxo6y It is important to understand that at four weeks and beyond the first dose of vaccine, the body is still mounting immunity The second dose fortifies that immunity. And here is why it was an excellent decision for NACI (The National Advisory Committee on Immunizations) to delay the second dose during our season of vaccine scarcity which is about to end; the second shot is generally more effective the longer you wait between shots. It is safe to wait. Stay put. Do not remove your seatbelt. We will prevent a fourth wave which we certainly cannot afford, by continuing to adhere to public health restrictions while our mass vaccination campaigns quadruple in the next month. We are way ahead of schedule. The time during which COVID-19 has the upper hand is almost over! Anne-Marie Please share

Our next Finding the Balance During COVID-19 is Tuesday, May 4th. Your link to register for this free event is here:

https://us02web.zoom.us/.../reg.../WN_mFUDPZpxQaWgEkQ83SviQw

For mental health support here:
https://familyserviceguelph.on.ca/
For local assistance with anxiety and depression:
www.here4help.ca
CMHA WW Website: www.cmhaww.ca
Here 24/7 at 1-844-HERE-247 or www.here247.ca.
And for post-secondary students, Good2Talk
https://good2talk.ca/


For non-Facebook users, you can find this post here:
https://braceletofhope.blogspot.com/
And if you'd like to help Bracelet of Hope work towards making sure that Lesotho has access to these vaccines, donate here:
https://www.braceletofhope.ca/ways-to-

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