Unprecedented

 My final post of 2020 and amen to that!

It's been an extraordinary year. Full of many things unprecedented.

UNPRECEDENTED: never done or known before.

You can say that again. COVID was an unknown this time last year and in 2021 we will do something the world has never accomplished before; the mass vaccination of billions of people using the intellectual property of the world and all the best we have in science and technology. I will say this again and again, "We were made for such a time as this". For that preparation, for these vaccine miracles and for the sharing of information on a global scale, I am in awe and so, so grateful.

I thank all of you for sharing this remarkable journey with me in over 270 posts, something unprecedented in my career. If you had told me in March of 2020 that I would be using Facebook to disseminate scientific and public health information to 21,000 followers I would have called you bonkers.

I wish you a Happy New Year.....but

"We are entering into an increasingly difficult time."

Patty Hadju- Minister of Health

OVER THE LAST SEVEN DAYS we have reached 565,000 cases of COVID-19 in Canada, 15,378 deaths, 6200 daily new cases, 3615 Canadians hospitalized, 720 in Intensive Care Units and over 136 Canadians have died each day.

There is no conspiracy here. COVID-19 is very real. The pandemic is not fake. It is not an attempt by governments to control populations. It is a virus that is only 80 nm in size. A tiny, tiny entity that latches on to your respiratory cells with vigour and hijacks your cells function to replicate itself causing, in some, severe and irreparable damage to major organs.

Its a killer. It has mutated to a more infectious variant. At this moment, on the dawn of a new year, we are all at higher risk of getting COVID-19 than we have ever been. We remain on a steep trajectory towards a very high number of new cases, hospitalizations and deaths. This battle will continue well into 2021.

Almost 3,000 cases in Ontario today indicates a very dangerous trend. No one is safe and the vulnerable are particularly at risk. Millions of Canadians have sacrificed their normal routines and many have put their lives at risk in this battle against COVID-19.

Please, please respect this national effort and do not gather on New Year's Eve. It's not worth it. Your life and the lives of the people you care about are so much more important than any New Year's Eve party. If you gather, you will be putting all those lives at risk. No sugar coating tonight.

But a lot to look forward to in 2021.

And here is the good news. No, it is amazing news. It is nothing short of a miracle. The world now has three vaccines that are over 90 % effective against COVID-19. All three, Pfizer Biontech, Moderna and Oxford-Astra Zeneca have very few side effects and so far, no serious complications. They represent unprecedented strides in science and vaccine technology, decades in the making, ready for a time like this.

Canada has selected a remarkable team of leaders that have already begun to roll out these vaccines on a national scale.

Major General Danny Fortin is in charge of Canada's mass vaccination program. Canada has received it's third shipment of the Pfizer vaccine.

In his comments today:

168,000 doses delivered this week

424,000 delivered in Canada during the month of December

124,000 doses expected to arrive the week of jan 4th

208,000 doses a week for the rest of January

1.2 million doses available by the end of January.

And tomorrow, the first shipment of the Moderna vaccine arrives in Canada.

Teams of people are being trained across the country to administer these vaccines in safe and well-prepared clinics and vaccine centres.

Guelph- Wellington- Dufferin will receive it's first doses on January 4th. With Dr. Nicola Mercer in charge of this local vaccine effort, we are in good hands.

AND.......

It is anticipated that all Canadians will have access to these vaccines by September.

"Despite the outstanding questions and challenges in delivering these vaccines, it is hard not to be excited about these findings and the existence of three safe and efficacious COVID-19 vaccines, with a further 55 already in clinical trials. With a range of manufacturers, a very large global investment in production, and cooperation in procurement and distribution, it seems likely that 2021 will see COVID-19 vaccines made available to all countries in the world—at least for their priority groups.

Perhaps by this time next year, we can celebrate the global control of SARS-CoV-2, in person." The Lancet. December 8, 2020

A happy, exciting, unprecedented New Year indeed.

Be well and safe tomorrow night my friends. Stay home. Be grateful. Celebrate the end of a difficult year and the beginning of a much, much brighter one, tucked away at home safe from COVID-19.

My heartfelt blessings to all of you.

Anne-Marie

Please share.

For non-Facebook users, you can find this post here:

https://braceletofhope.blogspot.com/

And if you'd like to help Bracelet of Hope work towards making sure that Lesotho has access to these vaccines, donate here:

https://www.braceletofhope.ca/ways-to-

Many folks are asking when the vaccines will be available to various groups and the general public. This is a good document to review. Public Health Units not on the list of COVID-19 Vaccine Clinics will also have vaccine clinics either at their partner hospitals or at the units themselves. I believe the Guelph Wellington Public Health Unit will have a vaccine clinic in short order.

Stay tuned. This is a moving target with each provincial and federal vaccine task force making decisions based on the science and the timing of the availability of the vaccines on a daily basis. We will all be vaccinated by the fall of 2021. Be patient. What we are about to witness is nothing short of herculean. This is not a race. It does not matter if one country is fully vaccinated a couple of months before our country. We are not safe or free of this virus until every country can immunize their populations. Kudos to Canada and the federal government for purchasing more that we need in order to give doses to resource poor countries. This is forward thinking. The entire global population must recover before any of us are well again.

Last couple of days of 2020. I am excited about that!

https://covid-19.ontario.ca/getting-covid-19-vaccine...

Anne-Marie

Please share.

The holidays are very tough for many.

For mental health support here:

https://familyserviceguelph.on.ca/

For local assistance with anxiety and depression:

www.here4help.ca

CMHA WW Website: www.cmhaww.ca

Here 24/7 at 1-844-HERE-247 or www.here247.ca.

And for post-secondary students, Good2Talk

https://good2talk.ca/

For non-Facebook users, you can find this post here:

https://braceletofhope.blogspot.com/

And if you'd like to help Bracelet of Hope work towards making sure that Lesotho has access to these vaccines, donate here:

https://www.braceletofhope.ca/ways-to-

Two forces working against us and two forces working for us:

There were over 2,000 cases per day in Ontario on December 27th and December 28th. Fifteen thousand Canadians have died of COVID 19.

In the United Kingdom the virus is spreading more rapidly than previously seen in some areas. This country and now 13 others including Canada, have discovered a more infectious strain of COVID-19.

The new variant was first reported in the United Kingdom on December 14. Named VUI-202012/01 (the first Variant Under Investigation in December 2020), has rapidly become the dominant strain in cases of COVID-19 in many parts of the UK. It may be 70% more transmissible but does not seem to be causing a more severe illness or changing enough to outsmart the new COVID-19 vaccines.

Here's the thing about viruses like COVID-19. Changes in the virus, or mutations, arise naturally as the virus replicates. Scientists have already discovered many thousands of COVID-19 mutations. As with other viruses, most of these mutated viruses do not change the virus in any appreciable way.

Remember that spike protein on the surface of the virus, the protein that allows the entry of COVID-19 into your cells where it then causes so much damage? There are currently 4,000 mutations of this spike protein meaning 4,000 types of virus whose spike protein has changed, just a bit but not enough to cause a more serious illnesses or more rapid rate of transmission of COVID-19.

“Mutations are expected and are a natural part of evolution. Many thousands of mutations have already arisen, and the vast majority have no effect on the virus but can be useful as a barcode to monitor outbreaks.” (Sharon Peacock, director of COG-UK)

This new variant of concern has 17 mutations to the spike protein making it easier for the virus to enter your cells. It's spike protein has changed enough to make it more transmissible. But it has not changed enough to make our vaccines less effective.

So, here's a case scenario:

You are a successful business man. You decide that you have been following the public health guidelines very well. You are invited to an office Christmas party. You decide that going won't do any harm. After all, you've been so good, it's Christmas and no one should have to sacrifice all the special gatherings.

So, you go. A few hours into the party and the party goers are really enjoying themselves. Lot's of good food and alcohol. Masks come off. We think less about the rules and follow them less precisely when we drink.

Three days later, this businessman develops symptoms. He is positive for COVID-19. He has been to work since the party and he has a pregnant wife.

IF he picked up this new COVID-19 variant, the virus was much more adept at entering the cells in the back of his throat using this new spike protein to enter cells. His immune system had no chance. Trouble is, the new virus made it much easier to spread the virus to his co-worker and pregnant wife. His co-worker continues on with his life, potentially carrying a virus that easily spreads to his family and friends. All of a sudden, a virus that was less easy to spread is now spreading like a wild fire, filling up our ER's and ICU's. People are not getting sicker but the more people who can easily spread the virus, the greater the number of people they can spread it to.

Remember the R value, the number of people a person with COVID can spread the virus to? The old COVID virus- R value is 1.1 to 1.2. This new variant, the R value may be as high as 1.6.

Two forces working against us:

The old COVID and the new COVID.

COVID-19 that was allowed to replicate and spread to millions of people. And now, as a result of thousands upon millions and billions of replications new mutations have evolved and at least one of these is this new COVID variant which is 70 % more transmissible.

Two forces working for us:

The public health guidelines still work. Regardless of the ability of this new variant to transmit, exposure is exposure. Keep a mask on, DO NOT GATHER, keep your distance and wash your hands.

And, the new vaccines are 95 % effective and all indications are that it will work against this variant.

Yeah, you deserve to have a big party on New Years Eve. We have earned it, right? If that new variant is at the party and you are not able to keep your mask on or keep your distance, You will get COVID-19 and you will spread it with great ease to anyone else you come in contact with.

Here's what makes not following the public health guidelines so dangerous right now.

The more people become infected, the more opportunity this virus has to replicate. The more opportunity it has to replicate, the more mutations will occur. If one mutant evolves enough to change it's spike protein to the degree that the vaccine no longer work, man we are in for a very long haul. As more mutations occur, the present vaccines may need to be altered. That is amazing but that would mean repeating the herculean efforts we have already made and we will be living with this virus for much longer than we need to.

Stay home on December 31st. Stay home on December 31st and don't have people in. Please stay home.

Please note, that business guy? True story. My husband was in the line of fire. He stayed six feet away from a dear friend who is was passing by. The co-worker was yet to find out that he was exposed at work. When my husband got home he was dismayed. He so wished to invite the friend in. He did not!!!

We are now mere months away from everyone in this country having access to an effective vaccine. Please, don't mess with that.

Stay safe.

Anne-Marie

Please share.

The holiday are very tough for many.

For mental health support here:

https://familyserviceguelph.on.ca/

For local assistance with anxiety and depression:

www.here4help.ca

CMHA WW Website: www.cmhaww.ca

Here 24/7 at 1-844-HERE-247 or www.here247.ca.

And for post-secondary students, Good2Talk

https://good2talk.ca/

For non-Facebook users, you can find this post here:

https://braceletofhope.blogspot.com/

And if you'd like to help Bracelet of Hope work towards making sure that Lesotho has access to these vaccines, donate here:

https://www.braceletofhope.ca/ways-to-

Short, pre- Christmas post

December 23, 2020.

I am actually a bit nervous. There has been such a build up of dread or apprehension or resignation about this coming Christmas Day. It will be the first time in my life that I have not attended church. They will be locked down. On Christmas Eve, we usually attend a pretty remarkable service at Grace Community Church.......since 1985. The highest point of the entire Christmas season, for me, is exiting that service. Pouring into the street with fellow church goers. Starry night, snowy night, rainy night, foggy night. It changes up from year to year but regardless of the weather, the night is Holy. An annual night of spiritual awakening and joy.

Thus the nerves. My husband said tonight that our lives seem to be a shadow of what they were. Maybe. But that spiritual awakening does not need traditions, hymns, carols or even.....people. It is private and deeply personal. Does faith survive a pandemic? It should. It will. It must.

So far, hope has survived.

So much to be grateful for. So much hope on the horizon. Hang on. As much as 2020 was incredibly difficult, 2021 will be remarkable. History will be made as we conquer COVID 19.

We will have six million doses of COVID-19 vaccines by the end of March.

The Moderna vaccine was approved by Health Canada today.

We are about to start a timely lockdown that, I hope, will keep this more vigorous variant of COVID- 19 out of the country.

Blessings to all of you. I made a special trip to Staples today. I am off next week. What better time to create more youtube videos on viruses and vaccines......science nerd to the end. I picked up some colourful white board markers. You have been forewarned.

Merry Christmas. I will be thinking of and praying for you as I step out onto my porch tomorrow night. My guess is, it will be just as Holy as the last 56 Christmas Eves.

A shout out to Royal City Nursery tonight. I am a little bit choked up. You delivered 45 Christmas centre pieces to long term care homes and front line workers today. Thank you. Mine has already been strategically placed.

Blessings to you and yours.

Anne-Marie