What will the next year look like?

This is a long post. Sit tight. Always new information.

Some new evidence today that suggests that the immunity that develops after COVID 19 infection does not last long.
Which means that weeks after infection, a person could become infected again. It also means that herd immunity may not be possible. One approach to rid the planet of a virus is to let as many people as possible become infected in the hopes that once 70 % become permanently immune to the virus, the virus dies out.

Not so with COVID 19. If natural infection does not give long-lasting immunity, we need to wait for a vaccine that induces a stronger, longer-lived response. A strong and effective vaccine or, much like the flu, an annual vaccine, or like childhood immunizations, a series of vaccines that as a group, confers immunity.

This puts even more pressure on the development of a vaccine, which takes time.

This virus is going to be with us for awhile. Even though the scientific community has learned 5 to 10 years worth of information about COVID 19 in the last 6 months, Vaccine development takes time. We need a very accurate vaccine that causes a person to produce antibodies to the virus without putting that person's immune system into overdrive, which can be dangerous.

This new research also suggests that asymptomatic infections test positive for an average of five days longer than symptomatic infections ( 19 days compared with 14 days). Which could mean they are shedding virus longer. No symptoms, virus being shed by talking, singing, laughing or shouting.

That's the dangerous piece. This virus is having a great time when these asymptomatic people are having a great time. It loves mass indoor and outdoor gatherings: concerts, weddings, parties, church gatherings, bars and nightclubs. We have a very low incidence of COVID 19 in this country. Well done folks: 218 new cases in the country in the last 24 hours, 178 in Ontario.

Here's the thing. If there are Canadians out there with asymptomatic infection, they are most likely to spread it in large gatherings. The fewer that are gathered, the less likely the spread and being outdoors decreases the risk even further. If there are Canadians out there with asymptomatic infection that are shedding virus but feeling great, A MASK DECREASES THE CHANCE OF SPREADING THE VIRUS.

That's why physical distancing, gatherings of less than ten, proper hand hygiene and wearing masks when in public are key tools in fighting the spread of COVID-19.

Until there is a vaccine, this is what we will need to continue to do and my guess is, that's at least a year. What does a year of COVID 19 look like? It looks like the same as it does now only with even tighter adherence to the public health guidelines because, we are opening up our economies.

The first wave of COVID-19 is subsiding in Canada, with daily case numbers and hospitalizations falling to rates not seen since the beginning of the pandemic. Gotta read that again.

We can stay right here if we remain vigilant, if we work together like a well oiled, highly functional, determined and focused team, we can stay right here. A second wave is not set in stone. I think it is absolutely possible to avoid it and that should be our goal. If we keep up our guard, we will see small outbreaks that are picked up early with widespread testing, contact tracing and quarantining. One small outbreak to the next small outbreak with fewer and fewer hospitalizations and deaths because, those that are positive are watched closely. Support is given quickly preserving the lungs and other vital organs, avoiding life support and death.

That's the next year. Can we do it? You bet we can. Wear a mask in public, stay six feet apart. Avoid large gatherings at all costs. Wear masks at church and in the shared public spaces at work, in the grocery store, the bank, the pharmacy.
Enjoy your bubble of 10 or less but adhere to the pact and stay out of other bubbles. Enjoy your friends as they sit six feet away from you at a BBQ or campfire, eat outdoors with company and wash your hands especially while being in public spaces and when you have returned home.

Organizations are getting ready for the new vaccine. That is very hopeful. It is not 'if' it is 'when' there is a vaccine. We will need to build a massive capacity to store and distribute that vaccine around the world. Let's not leave resource poor countries out of the solution. It is time to love and respect our fellow man in every country of this world. Canada is contributing to a $9.5 billion fund sponsored by an organization called Global Citizen which will address the humanitarian and developmental impacts of the pandemic in resource poor countries and make sure there is equal access to vaccines and treatments.

Wouldn't it be remarkable if this next, uncertain year leads to a world where justice and equality become our main focus? I'd be in for that.

To you my fellow warriors: Celebrating Pride and Canada Day. It will be a grand week! Proud, free and standing on guard together!

Anne-Marie

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