So, here's how it works. We have so got this!!
Take a look at this link to the Public Health Agency of Canada:
And look at the graphs under these titles:
1/ Daily case counts of COVID-19 continue to increase nationally
2/ Each new case in Canada is spreading infection to more than one person, keeping the epidemic in a growth pattern ( the R value is now > 1 across the country).
3/ Canada continues to test at a high rate but recent spread has increased the percentage of people testing positive ( the percent positivity is now over 3.5% )
4/ Incidence of COVID-19 is increasing across all age groups but remains highest among those under 40 years of age ( look at the red line- the highest increase in cases in the 20 - 39 year olds)
5/ Hospitalizations have increased following the increase in reported cases ( there are now 1100 people in hospital across the country)
6/ Daily number of COVID-19-related deaths, which lag behind infections, is also gradually increasing
7/ Long-range forecast indicates that a stronger response is needed now to slow the spread of COVID-19
This graph is the most important because is shows us where we are, where we might end up and where we could end up.
- the grey line- If we maintain our current rate of contacts – the epidemic is forecast to resurge and there will be 8,000 new cases a day in Canada by the end of December
-the orange line- If we increase our current rate of contacts by 20% – the epidemic is forecast to resurge faster and stronger and there will be 8,000 new cases a day in Canada by the end of November ( 4 weeks from now)
-the blue line- If we decrease our current rate of contacts by 25% – the epidemic is forecast to come under control in most locations with less than 2,000 cases a day and declining by the end of November......AND CHRISTMAS IS OURS!!!
WE ARE GOIN FOR BLUE!!
Which means we must reduce our interactions by 25% in order to bring the pandemic under control again, the way it was in glorious July. Frankly, I am not sure what 25 % looks like in a practical sense but information from epidemiologist is often confusing. The epidemiologist I live with confuses me all the time.
Let's keep it simple. For the next two weeks, don't hold any indoor gatherings. Stick to your work bubble and your household bubble. Two weeks is all it will take. If you must gather, do it safely: stay 6 feet apart, wear masks and have one person be your designated public health lookout. That person does not drink and keeps an eye on the folks in the room making sure they stay safe during the gathering and that they get home safe. We have been designating a driver for years. Why can't we designate a person to be a driver and a public health look out?
Again, it is recommended that you not gather at all just like no sex when you are a teenager but, if it happens, be safe.
No new cases in the Wellington-Dufferin-Public Health Unit in the last two days. Great work. Keep those masks on.
We are seeing a higher and higher occupancy in our ICU's and hospitals especially in the provincial hotspots. In these areas, Public Health cannot keep up with contact tracing. They are only tracing and testing people involved in outbreaks. That's a dangerous trend. That means that the folks that are getting COVID 19 in the community outside of significant outbreaks are on their own and without knowing they need to self-isolate, they will pass the virus on to others. That's community transmission and that is what we want to avoid.
There is evidence that people who test positive are not being truthful with respect to who they have been in contact with.
It is not illegal to become infected with COVID because you attended a gathering. There are no legal repercussions if public health asks for your contacts and you admit you were at a party with 50 people. There will be no legal consequences. The public health guidelines are guidelines, not laws. Public health will not report you to bylaw officers. You will not be fined.
But if you do not let public health know who your contacts were, some of those contacts could die. Early detection and treatment of COVID 19 reduces the chance of dying of COVID 19. Don't leave your friends and family unprotected.
Looks like the rate of spread in this second wave is starting to slow. Good work.
"The projections show the number of COVID-19 cases could rise from the current level — 230,547 as of 11:20 a.m. ET today — to 262,000 by Nov. 8, with up to 326 people expected to die from complications of the disease during that time."
Have you ever saved a life? How about 326 of them?
Let's do this Canada. Two weeks and we save lives and Christmas is ours!
I am socializing tonight. There is only one person in my bubble. We are heading to Dianna's Downtown, my favourite restaurant. The food is awesome and the place is huge with lots of room for social distancing. We were there last week. I so enjoyed eating food that I had not prepared. Loved it. Thank's Dianna's.
There are ways to socialize safely.
Anne-Marie
Please share
PS- The Finding the COVID-19 Balance part 2 webinar has been changed to November 9th at 7 pm. I will share the link well in advance of the event. Watch for fliers across the region. Any donations generated from the event will go to Bracelet of Hope and Hope House. Taking care of one-another.....love that.
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